When news broke of Dylan Cease signing with the Toronto Blue Jays, there was a good amount of shock: seven years and $210 million far outpaced what most anticipated the workhorse right-hander to land in free agency.
It was especially relevant to the Chicago Cubs, a team in desperate need of a top-of-the-rotation arm. If Cease pulled in $210 million, what would that mean for Tatsuya Imai's market? Framber Valdez? It seemed to have the potential of re-setting the starting pitching market this winter - and not in a way Jed Hoyer would find enjoyable.
But, now, we have the deferral details - and they paint things in a very different light.
Dylan Cease's actual contract details fall perfectly within projections
With deferrals factored in, the deal comes in much closer to start-of-offseason projections: seven years and $182 million. That's good news for the Cubs in the sense that maybe the entire market isn't gonna get stupid pricey - but bad news in the sense that, again, deferrals are part of the equation - and this team has adamantly refused to defer money.
The deferrals are expected to reduce the present value AAV of the deal to around 26 million per year, per source.
— Mitch Bannon (@MitchBannon) November 27, 2025
Still the largest pitching contract in #BlueJays history https://t.co/u8mw0s2QoQ
I talked about that sticking point in the immediate aftermath of the deal and it remains just as true now as it was a few days ago. And the point I made then remains relevant, as well: it feels far likelier that the Cubs get their big arm via trade as opposed to through free agency. The largest free agent deal Chicago has ever given to a pitcher came more than a decade ago in Jon Lester (six years, $155 million) - and they've never come close to touching that mark again since.
Cease felt like a perfect fit (right-handed, power pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff) and given where his contract netted out now that we know deferral details, there's going to be a contingent of Cubs fans frustrated about missing out. But it's still early in the winter - and as long as Hoyer gets his big-name starter this offseason, whether via trade or free agency - the rotation will be in good shape.
