Decreased velocity, poor results could be a red flag for Cubs' top reliever from 2024

Early last season, the Chicago Cubs bullpen was in shambles after Adbert Alzolay went down and a general lack of shutdown options were on hand. The addition of Tyson Miller in May stabilized the pen and he became a go-to arm for manager Craig Counsell.

On the year, Miller tied with Porter Hodge to lead all Cubs relievers with 1.3 bWAR, making 50 appearances and working to a 2.15 ERA (which, admittedly, far outpaced his 3.62 FIP). It's scary to think how much worse things could have been last year on the North Side without the side-arming right-hander's contributions.

Heading into camp this spring, Miller seemed like a pretty solid bet to crack the 26-man Cubs Opening Day roster - but after his latest Cactus League appearance (0.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 H) - which saw him miss his spots repeatedly and show a notable drop in his velocity, the ground he's on is all of the sudden feeling a lot less stable.

The Cubs' front office did a great job assembling a ton of potential bullpen depth this winter and, with no minor league options remaining, Miller either has to break camp with the team or be exposed to waivers. It's worth wondering if the team will opt to go with someone who has more manueverability In terms of bouncing back and forth between the big leagues and Iowa given the relative lack of options among arms projected to make the club.

Miller has never been a big velocity guy, never averaging more than 91.1 MPH on his heater - which was already down a bit last year, averaging 89.6 MPH. You don't have to be a velocity guy to be successful, but when you're down in back to back years and you're creeping ever-closer to the mid-80s, I have my doubts - even in early March.

His struggles, paired with the sheer volume of arms in camp, do him no favors. Someone like Brad Keller, who has been the talk of camp in the early going, could easily push him out of a job in the coming weeks, especially if Keller's dramatic velocity increase sticks. There are a number of other intriguing non-roster invitees in camp, too, so this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

There's still time for Miller to get things sorted out, but if some of the arms in camp have strong springs and he continues to struggle, it's totally feasible that the team's biggest reclamation project success from a year ago could be on the outside looking in when the dust settles and we have our season-opening staff.