Cubs' Wild Card matchup vs. Padres looks way too close for anyone to feel comfortable

If the Chicago Cubs want to play another game at Wrigley Field in 2026, they'll have to overcome a surging San Diego Padres at Petco Park this week.

The NL Wild Card Series gets underway on Tuesday night, and I've got to be honest. It feels like a coin flip as to which way this thing could go. The Cubs boast baseball's best offense and defense, but their pitching staff leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, the Padres are one of baseball's hottest teams and head into the MLB playoffs with a full head of steam.

Lingering concerns over Kevin Gausman's health have cast a major shadow over the series for the Cubs, who acquired the right-hander at the deadline for just this moment and now face the possibility they'll be without him for Game 1. There's plenty of depth in the rotation, but they lack a true #1 to turn to in a must-win game, a problem that's plagued the team for years.

Pete-Crow Armstrong and Alex Bregman give Chicago a 1-2 punch that measures up to any team in baseball, but Bregman is just over a week removed from a terrifying injury. He's returned quickly and had a monster regular-season finale, but is likely limited to a DH role in the Wild Card Series.

Cubs have to get the bats going early against Padres' pitchers

Everyone knows about San Diego's monster bullpen - and that's the key differentiator between these two teams. They both rely on offense to cover up their shortcomings on the pitching side of things, but the Friars have Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Bradgley Rodriguez and other high-leverage weapons for the late innings. Meanwhile, the Cubs have more questions than answers.

You don't want to get into the late innings chasing this Padres team because, more often than not, it's game over. PCA needs to lead the charge and set the tone early. San Diego ranked 21st in starter ERA this year, but fifth in bullpen ERA. This series boils down to one thing: the Cubs' ability to put up runs early and avoid playing from behind.

If they back themselves into a corner, it will be an early end to a season that began with lofty championship aspirations. But if the bats get hot, an NLDS rematch with the rival Milwaukee Brewers awaits.

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