Cubs' trade target is off to a shockingly awful start to the 2025 season

The expectation remains that the Chicago Cubs will be adding a starting pitcher before the Major League Baseball Trade Deadline in July.

The trade target that every Cubs fan has circled is Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara is under team control beyond the 2025 season, and given where the Marlins are, there is the belief that he will be the top starting pitcher available this summer.

What Cubs fans might not be paying attention to is Alcantara's slow start to the season. After undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of 2023, Alcantara missed the entire 2024 season but was healthy for the start of the 2025 season.

In his return to the mound for the Marlins this season, Alcantara's numbers are down across the board. Through his first 6 starts this season, Alcantara's ERA sits at 8.31. While with the Marlins, the popular theory would be that the inflated ERA could be, in part, due to the team around Alcantara, but his FIP sits at 5.58 on the season.

Alcantara has been bad and stems from his inability to miss bats as well as struggles with his command. As it stands, Alcantara's strikeout percentage of 15.8% this season would be the lowest mark of his career. Alcantara's walk percentage, 14.2%, would be the third-highest mark of his career.

Cubs can't ignore Sandy Alcantara's struggles to open the season

Alcantara struggling during his first month back after missing a full season isn't something that will have the Cubs remove him from trade consideration, but his underlying metrics are something that the front office can't ignore either. For example, when the Cubs acquired Isaac Paredes last season, his underlying metrics overwhelmingly suggested his offensive profile wasn't a match for Wrigley Field. Nevertheless, the Cubs still made the trade.

Back to Alcantara, if the Cubs' sole purpose in acquiring a starting pitcher is to replace Justin Steele's production this season, he may not be the best trade option. Especially if Alcantara is working his way back to being a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and the true payoff won't come until next season.