The Chicago Cubs traded for Clay Holmes at the trade deadline, in part, because they had a dire need in the starting rotation, but they also had the hope of Holmes being a factor for the team during the playoffs. As it turned out, Holmes made zero appearances for the Cubs during their two-game Wild Card Series against the Padres, and it felt like an awkward finish to his run in Chicago.
In the immediate aftermath of the trade, Holmes appeared to be the ace of the rotation, and was positioning himself to be the best fallback option to Tarik Skubal in free agency this offseason. Then, he posted an ERA of 8.24 during the month of September.
Teams will almost certainly look at the larger sample size for Holmes over the past two years, and that is the one of the reasons why he's still expected to decline the $12 million player option for the 2027 season. Even so, the Cubs are expected to still have an interest in retaining the 33-year-old for next season and beyond.
For the same reasons the Cubs pursued Holmes at the deadline, they likely will make him an early priority in free agency. While Hoyer is aware that the Cubs have had an over-reliance on their defense in terms evaluating pitchers, there's no question that Holmes, when he's right is an ideal fit for what the Cubs want to do.
Cubs reportedly haven't closed door on Clay Holmes despite frustrating end to his season
While confirming the interest the Cubs will have in Holmes this offseason, The Athletic's Patrick Mooney tried to pinpoint what went wrong for the veteran over his last string of starts with the Cubs. It's not that hard to figure out what it was. In September, he walked just over 16% of the hitters he faced. In August, he walked just over 8% of the hitters he faced.
For his career, Holmes has a walk rate of 10.1%. While his struggles in September made him less of a priority when Craig Counsell had to map out the Cubs' pitching plans for their playoff series in San Diego, they shouldn't be a reason the team avoids him in free agency. Holmes' walk rate in 2026 was the highest it's been since 2019, and that should suggest it's not going to be a major problem moving forward.
Yes, the Cubs need to add more velocity and swing-and-miss to their pitching staff in 2027, but given they are filling just about every spot in their rotation this offseason, bringing back Holmes would be an easy box to check.
