Cubs spared themselves disaster by refusing to deal with division foe

In the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline, there were conflicting reports over the level of interest the Chicago Cubs had in Pittsburgh Pirates' starting pitcher Mitch Keller. While it seemed like the Cubs backed away from Keller as the deadline arrived, other reports suggested they were willing to include Owen Caissie in a potential deal.

For Caissie's potential involvement alone, it feels like the Cubs dodged a bullet by not making a trade with the Pirates where they would have surrendered their top prospects. The slump of Kyle Tucker has created an opening for Caissie, and the immediate results have been great.

Meanwhile, Keller is in the middle of a brutal stretch of starts for the Pirates. In 26 innings pitched since the All-Star break, Keller is sporting an ERA of 8.31. If the ERA wasn't ugly enough, Keller is only striking out 18 percent of the hitters he has faced since the break while walking nearly 12 percent. Keller has been healthy, and that is something that can't be said for Michael Soroka, but that is the only thing that he holds over the addition the Cubs made at the deadline.

Sure, there is a benefit to Keller being under contract after this season, but for the purpose of improving the Cubs' 2025 chances, it doesn't look like he would have been a strong option.

Cubs’ smartest move may have been the trade they didn’t make

Struggling during the second half isn't something that is new to Keller, either. In 2024, Keller sported an ERA of 5.65 in his last 63 and 2/3 innings pitched. 2023 wasn't better either, with a mark of 5.59 over his last 77 and 1/3 innings pitched.

In the moment, at the trade deadline, there was rightful frustration that the Cubs didn't do more at the deadline. They still should have. But Keller makes two potential deals that the Cubs left on the table and now look like geniuses. The other was Eugenio Suarez, who has a 53 wRC+ since being traded to the Seattle Mariners.

Of course, the adage is that a broken clock is right twice a day. Making successful gambles on not trading for Keller or Suarez shouldn't allow Jed Hoyer to act with the sense of entitlement he often carries when talking about his decisions. Many of his decisions haven't panned out the way he believes they have, and that is the larger problem when it comes to the outlook of the Cubs.

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