Cubs singled out as only NL Central team with a chance at a big free agent signing

The Chicago Cubs have all the pieces in place to put the National League Central on lockdown. They're, by far, the most valuable franchise in the division, regularly run out the largest payroll among the five NL Central teams and have ways of attracting top talent that, frankly, many of their rivals do not.

In his latest mailbag over at The Athletic (subscription required), Jim Bowden faced a simple question: "Will any NL Central team make significant signings (players who get $20 million or more annually)?" The only club that even has a chance at making a move like this, in his estimation, is the Cubs - as he directly rules out the Reds, Pirates, Cardinals or Brewers making such a splash in free agency.

The likeliest place Chicago would drop that kind of coin this winter is in the starting rotation, where the front office is known to be looking for some upgrades. Jack Flaherty would narrowly cross that threshold, with MLBTR projecting him for a five-year, $115 million deal, but apart from him, the Cubs are unlikely to pursue anyone at the top of the market.

Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are definitely not happening. Alex Bregman probably isn't in the cards, either, and the same can be said for Willy Adames if for no other reason, a lack of positional fit on the roster. Max Fried makes a ton of sense, but I still have trouble believing the Cubs will give up the draft pick compensation required to sign him (not to mention the $150+ million he'll command).

Pete Alonso seemed like a decent fit before Cody Bellinger opted back in, throwing a wrench into the front office's plans for the winter. There's a chance Jed Hoyer manages to trade Bellinger and open up more possibilities but, to this point, it's been a weak market for the former Rookie of the Year and MVP.

Anthony Santander could be a fit but, similar to Alonso, it's hard to carve out regular ABs with the Cubs' current roster make-up. He's expected to get a four-year, $80 million deal, but I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up with something in the $100-million range. Rounding out MLBTR's top 10 free agent rankings, Sean Manaea is in the same boat as Fried, tied to draft pick compensation after turning down the qualifying offer from the Mets.

I agree with Bowden. The Cubs have the best chance of landing a $20 million AAV player this offseason. But it's also totally conceivable to me that no team in the division doles out such a contract this winter and we head into spring talking about a number of budget-focused moves across the Central.