Cubs shouldn't ignore Cade Horton reminder hiding in Reds' Hunter Greene news

Counting on an injured pitcher to make an established return can be a mistake. The Chicago Cubs found that out this season with Justin Steele, considering he has yet to make his 2026 debut after his original timeline placed his return around the start of June. The Cincinnati Reds continue to find that out with Hunter Greene.

Greene was recently placed on the IL with an elbow injury, and the Reds confirmed on Thursday the the 27-year-old starting pitcher will be undergoing Tommy John surgery. Greene previously had Tommy John surgery in 2019, and in spring training this season, he underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow.

Regardless of when the 2027 season starts, the expectation is that Greene won't be available for the duration of the year. He finishes the 2026 season with just a tick under 28 innings pitched, and marks the third time in the past four years that he hasn't eclipsed 115 innings pitched in a season.

For all the talent that Greene has, availability has become his biggest liability. It's certainly become clear that moving forward, the Reds can't count on Greene being healthy, and Cubs fans may want to keep that in mind when it comes to what Horton's 2027 season may look like.

Cade Horton's 2027 season should be viewed as a bonus, not an expectation for the Cubs

As of now, the general hope is that Horton could be back with the Cubs by the start of July next season. Until there's more of a concrete update on his recovery, likely not until the offseason, it's hard to pinpoint what the exact timeline is for Horton.

But as the Cubs go about reconstructing the pitching staff this season, Horton's return shouldn't be viewed as an expectation. Greene's 2026 season with the Reds is proof that recoveries are never linear. And, more directly, the Cubs didn't view Steele as an expectation this season.

The unfortunately reality for the Cubs is that there's no telling what version of Horton they will have when he makes his return. Best-case scenario, it's the version of Horton that nearly won the National League Rookie of the Year in 2025. Ideally, it's simply a version the Cubs know they can pencil into their rotation once he's healthy. If nothing else, the hope is that Horton is healthy by next October. After that, then there could be a discussion about his role.

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