Cubs should stay away from one 2026 draft target that fits them all too well

With a near-total lack of high-end pitching talent in the organization, especially at the upper levels of the minors, the Chicago Cubs are feeling the pressure to hit on their first-round pick in this weekend's MLB Draft - and seem to be open to selecting a pitcher, something they haven't done since taking Cade Horton seventh overall back in 2022.

It's not about taking any pitcher. The Cubs need to zero in on arms who are as close to sure things as possible (a tall task, to be sure). Really, what it comes down to is avoiding anyone with a history of arm injuries because we've seen that track blow up in Jed Hoyer's face in both Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins, two pitchers who had elbow procedures in college and have since struggled to stay healthy in their professional careers.

Horton, who finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year, has the ceiling of a big-league ace. But after undergoing a (UCL) revision and internal brace surgery this spring, his 2026 is lost - and much of his 2027 could be, as well. Wiggins had Tommy John surgery in 2023 at Arkansas and is yet to handle a legitimate workload either in college or in the minors.

Hard lessons should steer Cubs clear of UCLA ace Logan Reddemann

The lessons (we hope) learned there should steer Hoyer well clear of UCLA right-hander Logan Reddemann, whose draft stock has tumbled after he missed time late in the collegiate season due to what the Bruins labeled 'arm fatigue'. When healthy, the junior was one of the best pitchers in the game, with a fastball that pushed into the upper-90s and a plus change-up, to boot.

But as enticing as the stuff can be, Chicago needs to zero in on someone with a clean bill of health. Personally, I'd sacrifice a little ceiling for a guy who doesn't come in with a history of arm injuries. Reddemann never returned to the mound for UCLA after the April diagnosis and, even though he's recently resumed throwing, I'm steering clear of him in the first round.

There's no way to guarantee a prospect stays healthy and lives up to expectations. I get that and I'm not arguing that fact. But it feels like, given the state of pitching for the Cubs as an organization, putting themselves behind the eight-ball by taking a guy with health questions would be short-sighted and an unecessary gamble.

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