Cubs should roll the dice and make a contract extension offer to Kyle Tucker

News flash: Unlike Jed Hoyer, I’ve never negotiated a multi-million dollar contract with a player. But that isn’t stopping me from having ideas about how I would negotiate with Kyle Tucker if I was running the Chicago Cubs front office.

From a management standpoint, this is the perfect time to pursue such negotiations because Tucker’s value has taken at least a modest hit these past several weeks. He’s followed up a terrible July (.218/.380/.295) with an even worse August (.138/.231/.138).

That kind of performance ought to disabuse the market of the notion that Tucker is the star of the upcoming free agent class. It also ought to make Tucker more willing than he has been to consider offers befitting a front-line star without rising to the level of thievery.

The preseason projections set Tucker’s market somewhere north of $500 million for an indeterminate but lengthy number of seasons. At the time that made sense given Tucker’s age; he’s 28.

But that projection was based on the sense that Tucker was at a point where he was likely to indefinitely maintain or even improve on his career numbers, a .274/.353/.516 slash line that works out to an .870 OPS.

Well into his walk year, Tucker isn’t especially close to that level of performance. His slash line entering play Friday was .258/.372/.443; those figures represent declines of 16 points in batting average, 73 points in slugging and 55 points in OPS. A homer in the opener against the Angels is encouraging, but it takes more than one long-ball to turn the tide.

Can Jed Hoyer, Kyle Tucker come to terms on an extension? Probably not.

What’s the problem? I don't know, but regardless of the cause, it's at least plausible Tucker is feeling the pressure of a potential bidding war and the dollars he’s costing himself with this extreme second-half slide.

If I’m Hoyer, that means it’s time to make Tucker an offer that qualifies as good but not great – because I’d love to have him back on my terms but I’m willing to let him walk if need be – and see whether he’ll take it.

Here’s the offer: $30 million per year for eight years. That’s $240 million, by far the largest contract the Cubs have ever given out. I’d also be willing to go $40 million per year for six years. That’s also $240 million and it would make Tucker one of the game’s six or seven highest-paid players. I’ll even throw in an opt out after year two.

Why should Tucker take it? Several reasons. First, it’s very good money.  Second, it removes from him what appears to be the burden of his declining performance entering the latter stages of his walk year. Third, it gives him the option of re-establishing himself as a true front-rank star – which would be absolutely okay with me – and hitting the market again (with a much stronger case) in 2028, which also removes the uncertainty of the looming labor stoppage after the 2026 season.

From my standpoint as Cubs president, the has several important advantages beyond locking up Tucker. Notably it gives me the flexibility to make deals with Pete Crow-Armstrong and potentially one or two other long-termers. It also satisfies the fans, who don’t care about money as long as Tucker is re-signed.

There is of course always the prospect – and a very real one – that Tucker’s response to my offer is a cynical laugh. Odds are he’s being advised by his agent that this slump is not hindering his market – which may be true – and all he needs to do is wait until November for the mega payday.

That may be right. But if I am the Cubs’ president, I don’t care. I’d love to have Tucker back, but not at any price. If there is one thing the Cubs have learned about Kyle Tucker in 2025, it’s that while he is a very good player he is not a franchise player. He isn’t capable of lifting the team by himself. And that means there is a price above which I am entirely willing to walk away.

If I can’t get Tucker, I’m okay with making a run at bringing back Kyle Schwarber and turning right field over to Owen Caissie and/or Seiya Suzuki. Cubs' upper management has to date been deferential in their handling of the Tucker situation. While Tucker was playing well, that made sense. It does not, however, make sense under the present circumstances.

This is the time for Hoyer to make Tucker a firm and fair offer – with a deadline – and see whether he’s interested. That may be a hardball approach, but hardball is precisely what we’re playing.