Cubs Rumors: Regression from Matt Shaw leaves team no choice at the deadline

When Matt Shaw homered on June 7, the second of his Major League career, it was a sign that the offensive resurgence the Chicago Cubs were seeing from their top prospect was going to elevate to the next level and now include some power. After a reset with the Iowa Cubs, Shaw's hot return to the Major League level seemed crossed off third base as a need for the Cubs at the trade deadline. However, since then, Shaw's offense hasn't passed the eye test, and the numbers make that very clear.

Between June 8 and last night, Shaw is slashing .122/.207/.159/8 wRC+. Now, while no one needed to see Shaw's numbers to believe that he has since regressed since coming back from Triple-A, a common refute has been that the young third baseman is hitting the ball harder. While that was true in his initial set of plate appearances after being recalled, Shaw's average exit velocity over the last month is 83.7. For reference, over that same time, the average exit velocity of qualified hitters across Major League Baseball was 89.4.

Even looking beyond average exit velocity, Shaw is well short of his Major League counterparts when it comes to hitting the ball hard. Over the last month, Shaw has had a barrel rate of 1.5 percent and a hard-hit rate of 29.5 percent. Qualified Major League hitters over that same period have a barrel rate of 7.8 percent and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent.

Matt Shaw regression leaves a roster hole front office can’t ignore

The numbers give the Cubs' front office a loud answer for what they need to do before the deadline. The Cubs must add a third baseman to raise the level of offensive production at the position. Yes, it's fair to suggest that with the Cubs' offense being among the best in baseball and Shaw playing excellent defense, there's a case to leave him at the bottom of the lineup. However, in a season where the Cubs are leaving nothing up to chance, adding a rental third baseman would seem like the logical thing to do.

Now, to the defense of Shaw and his future, the Cubs adding a rental third baseman like Eugenio Suarez does not change the long-term outlook at the position. Shaw very much should check that box. But, in a season where the Cubs are trying to win the World Series (and Dansby Swanson is failing with RISP), adding a rental impact bat at third base would do wonders.

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