Cubs Rumors: Confusion reigns when it comes to the Cubs and Alex Bregman

Conflicting reports and a lengthy foray into free agency for the All-Star has left everyone anxious and waiting for what's next.

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I JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT TO BELIEVE ANYMORE. In the last 48-ish hours, we've gotten conflicting reports on the Chicago Cubs and their reported level of interest in free agent third baseman Alex Bregman - but the latest, which came Friday courtesy of The Athletic's Jim Bowden, has the Cubs as the most aggressive team in the Bregman sweepstakes.

Look, if Jed Hoyer pulled it off and actually brought in Bregman to close out the offseason, I don't think I'm alone in saying I'd be absolutely flabbergasted. Here's why.

Roster Resource has the Cubs just over $207 million - which leaves them roughly $34 million shy of the first CBT threshold. You can safely assume that number is being treated as a fairly firm salary cap after the team inexplicably went over the first threshold last season. The front office will want to re-set penalties in 2025, which could give them the opportunity to be more aggressive in the years to come.

At one point, there was a fleeting sense Bregman might be open to a high-AAV, short-term contract. Shortly after that rumor surfaced, it was strongly refuted. The Cubs have been notoriously averse to long-term, high-dollar deals under Jed Hoyer (the Dansby Swanson signing standing as a lone exception) - and it's hard to see him topping the deal the Astros have reportedly left on the table for their longtime third baseman (six years, $156 million - $26M AAV).

Even if you get past the numbers (adding Bregman, even at just $26 million annually would push the Cubs right up to where they typically like to open the year payroll-wise, with room for in-season additions) - another roadblock exists: Houston extended a qualifying offer to Bregman last fall, which means Chicago would pay a steep price for signing him.

The Cubs would have to give up their second and fifth-highest picks in this summer's MLB Draft (and the bonus pool slots tied to both picks) and lose $1 million from the 2025 international free agent bonus pool, as well. Hoyer deeply values the draft - and I'd be shocked if he pivoted off that line of thinking at this point of the offseason.

Boston and Detroit both make sense as landing spots for Bregman and the Mets also have an uncertain third base situation (and limitless money under owner Steve Cohen). The Cubs could use him, sure. Top prospect Matt Shaw could get his first taste of big league action as a utility infielder off the bench, with Bregman starting everyday at third.

But that doesn't feel likely - despite these latest reports. We'll have to see how it plays out, but Hoyer landing Bregman after trading for Kyle Tucker would change the perception of this organization - and its chances at competing in 2025 - in dramatic fashion.

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