Cubs prospect one injury update away from Opening Day roster leap

It's just about inevitable that a team will deal with some sort of ailments during the ramp-up of Spring Training. The Chicago Cubs were fortunate not to be greeted with any surprises when camp first opened, but their good luck could only last so long. Tyler Austin, the $1.25 million bench bat they brought back from Japan, was confirmed on Wednesday to be out for "months" after having surgery for a right patellar debridement.

Though not expected to be the biggest contributor, Austin was an intriguing part of Jed Hoyer's rebuilt bench. While he hasn't played in the majors since 2019, he showed real strides in his time in Nippon Professional Baseball, cutting down his strikeout rate and becoming a real power threat for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Major League pitching is at another level, but coming off a .269/.350/.484 season with 11 home runs in 65 games, he seemed like a worthwhile gamble to get a lefty masher off the bench.

Someone will now have to fill that void left behind by the first baseman. His absence leaves one spot to compete for on the bench, with the other three spots set aside for Matt Shaw, whichever catcher isn't playing that day, and a fourth outfielder type, whether it be Chas McCormick, Kevin Alcantara, or someone else. The Cubs have a few routes open to them. After bringing in Michael Conforto, they could choose to carry a second outfielder from their minor league group with them, or they could opt for a utility man like former top prospect Owen Miller. Depending on how his injury plays out, though, this competition could be the moment for Jonathon Long to strike.

Since being drafted in the ninth round by the Cubs in 2023, Long hasn't just hit at every level he's played — he's mashed. His worst performance in Chicago's minor league system was back when he was in High-A, where he slashed .247/.346/.417. That was still good enough for a 121 wRC+ at the offense-depressed level, and he's only gotten better since.

Long first really started grabbing Cubs fans' attention during the 2024 Arizona Fall League. While teeing off against both High-A and Double-A pitching in his first full developmental season was impressive, sending him to the AFL was even more a sign of the organization's confidence in him. That confidence was swiftly rewarded when he went nuclear, posting a .338/.425/.662 slash line. It proved to be a sign of a big year ahead, as he promptly continued his reign of terror in Triple-A, with a .305/.404/.479/131 wRC+ season, including a career-high 20 home runs. He hasn't suffered many growing pains either, as indicated by a very respectable 19.1% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate.

While Long hasn't been that overly high on prospect rankings — MLB Pipeline last had him ranked sixth behind Ethan Conrad — that hasn't dampened what has been a major success story. He capped off his ascension last year by winning the Cubs' Minor League Player of the Year honors. With little left to prove, he offers a potentially very similar profile to what the team lost with Austin's injury. As a right-handed batter who typically plays first base, though has some reps in left field, he'd be able to slot in adequately on days Michael Bush has off against a lefty or when Ian Happ needs a break.

Jonathon Long's Chicago Cubs promotion hinges on his health

It's possible the Cubs will prefer one of their minor league signings that has big league experience, but the case for Long otherwise is strong. He deserves an extended look eventually, and what better time than now, when he so perfectly fits a hole from an injury that will take some time to heal. The only question will be his own health. He's only appeared in two spring training games so far because of an elbow sprain that has now forced him to withdraw from playing for Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Classic.

Expectations are that he'll continue to rehab and, hopefully, get into games before too long. If that sprain heals up and he gets enough time to ramp up for the season, expect him to be at the center of the competition for the Cubs' last bench spot. Craig Counsell confirmed as much himself when asked about the backup first base job, further confirming that the Cubs see him as a good fit to replace Austin. If he hits in spring as he has throughout the minors, it'll be hard to pass him over for the Opening Day roster.