Though the 2026 season is barely one month old, the odds that the National League Rookie of the Year will hail from the NL Central are overwhelming.
Moises Ballesteros factors firmly into that equation, but the Chicago Cubs' star slugger isn't the favorite by any means. That title currently belongs to Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart, though both JJ Wetherholt (St. Louis) and Konnor Griffin (Pittsburgh) figure to make things interesting over the course of the next five months.
Stewart, 22, is hitting a robust .252/.335/.496 over 36 games this season, entering Wednesday night, with 15 extra-base hits juicing his overall numbers enough to be worth a 124 wRC+.
That made his date with the Cubs this week a rather high-profile affair, but the North Siders' arms have held him down in a pair of one-run wins. Stewart was just 2-for-8 with three strikeouts halfway through the four-game set, opening the door for Ballesteros to impress onlookers.
Sal Stewart's cold streak, Moises Ballesteros' otherworldly production have reinvigorated the NL Rookie of the Year race
In truth, Stewart's ugly at-bats against the Cubs are actually part of an extended slump. Over his past nine games before Wednesday, he's got just four hits (one double and three singles) in 37 trips to the plate, which has dropped his OPS nearly 200 points from 1.025 to .832.
For what it's worth, Ballesteros hasn't been much better thus far this series. He's 0-for-4 with a walk, though he didn't start the second game against a tough southpaw (Andrew Abbott).
And, thanks to Stewart's recent slump, his overall numbers actually look demonstrably better: .302/.371/.570 (162 wRC+). Because he's a complete non-factor on defense and the basepaths, he's still been worth less fWAR than the Reds' star rookie (0.7 vs. 0.8), but the gap has closed significantly over the past two weeks.
Now, the Cubs are trying to accelerate Ballesteros' development as a catcher, though that seems more like a contingency plan for the future rather than a change to be implemented in 2026. If he can provide some positive value behind the plate, that'll significantly boost his overall profile, but the team will be wary about tiring out one of their best hitters. Ballesteros' bat will always be his carrying tool, no matter what the future holds for his glove.
Perhaps his status as a DH-only (or DH-first) player will open the door for others; Wetherholt and Griffin are pairing some solid offense with elite defensive value in the middle infield during their own rookie campaigns. Insofar as the Rookie of the Year Award is about highlighting the league's most valuable freshman contributor, though, it's hard to dislike Ballesteros' chances now that Stewart has fallen off pace.
