Cubs next move after Nico Hoerner contract extension is crystal clear

Although there were doubts about whether the Chicago Cubs could reach an agreement to keep Nico Hoerner around for the long haul, Jed Hoyer put all of that to bed on Thursday. The 28-year-old second baseman, often described as the beating heart of this core, got his extension, locking him down on the North Side for six more years. He was the most glaring of the many players about to hit free agency this offseason, given just how valuable he was, between his Gold Glove defense, bat, and leadership.

Securing Hoerner felt like the last thing the Cubs needed to do to make this offseason's actions feel complete. They now have a solid core locked up through the decade, also anchored by Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Bregman. While they're at it on the extension front, though, there's at least one more area that should be addressed.

The Cubs will be heading into next offseason with both of their corner outfielders about to hit the market. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki aren't perfect, but they're still extremely valuable members of the team that would be sorely missed in the lineup — and, in Happ's case, the field. The former is coming off yet another season as his usual, quietly productive self, with a .243/.342/.420 slash line, a 116 wRC+, and his fourth straight Gold Glove in left. The latter, meanwhile, had another good, if not quite spectacular, offensive season as a DH, bringing the thump with a .245/.326/.478/123 wRC+ line and 32 home runs. In their own ways, both are consistent 2.5 to 3.5 fWAR players. Yet, despite that, the front office has seemed content to let them be for now.

Those are not players who grow on trees. Case in point, the upcoming 2026-2027 free agent class doesn't have many options at or above their caliber in the outfield. Randy Arozarena (120 wRC+), Daulton Varsho (123 wRC+), and Trent Grisham (129 wRC+) are likely the next best choices, and all are coming off seasons of similar offensive numbers, with only the last two being younger than Happ and Suzuki. None of them has put together a full offensive season on quite the level of Suzuki's best year, either. Given all of that, it would make sense for the Cubs to extend at least one of them.

As it stands, they also aren't in the best spot to naturally fill both positions with the same level of production internally. They traded their best and closest outfield prospect, Owen Caissie, to land Edward Cabrera, leaving Kevin Alcantara as the only obvious heir apparent. However, he failed to take a real step forward in his development last year, still striking out at a far too high 29.8% clip while not forcing the issue in Triple-A with a .266/.349/.470 season. It's far too early to make a judgment on Matt Shaw's capabilities in the outfield, too. Maybe they could consider a trade, but there's no guarantee they'll find a fit that makes sense, especially with a farm system that has cratered in value.

It doesn't have to be both, but the Cubs would be wise to extend one of Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki.

Hoyer and the Cubs are the types to wait until the last possible minute to make decisions when they can, and that arguably isn't a bad thing in this case. Putting off a decision until the end of the season would give Alcantara another year to break out as the next obvious option to join PCA in the outfield, and it would give us a larger sample size on Shaw, both at the plate and in the grass. However, I think locking up one of Happ or Suzuki doesn't have to wait for that.

In a less bountiful free agent class for position players, Happ and Suzuki are likely going to get a lot of interest. They'll both be 32 by then, so they shouldn't be cost-prohibitive for any team either. With everything mentioned above, I'd rather have the guarantee that at least one of them won't be walking.

To me, Suzuki's ceiling makes him a better bet. Despite his streakiness and defensive concerns, he showed last year that he can be a 30-home run threat, and he's had stretches of scorched-earth baseball where he can carry the lineup. That said, Happ might be more willing to accept a shorter-term extension, which makes him a potentially better bridge to the younger players without tying too much money up in an aging veteran. Either way, the security and the flexibility it gives to perhaps trade Alcantara or Shaw for another need seems worthwhile. The Cubs can set their core up very well before the new CBA kicks in.