Cubs must solve Shota Imanaga conundrum before it's too late

A year ago, Shota Imanaga's home run problems got so bad that he literally became unplayable during the Chicago Cubs' most important game of the season. Heading into Game 5 of the NLDS on full rest, Craig Counsell instead opted to sit his Opening Day starter and tried to use a litany of relievers to out-duel the Milwaukee Brewers, which ultimately failed.

After returning via the qualifying offer, it was anyone's guess how Imanaga would respond in 2026. All he's done is answer the call and then some, reasserting himself as the workhorse of the staff; he's covered a team-leading number of innings this year (143.1) while authoring a 3.77 ERA.

Unfortunately, the home run problems are returning in full force. The southpaw has now given up seven long balls in his past four starts, giving him 29 total for the year (the second-highest figure among all pitchers).

We saw how Cubs management responded to the homer-induced slump a year ago. Is there anything the team can do to avoid the same fate this time around?

Shota Imanaga's next few starts will determine his playoff roster fate with Cubs

Even though Imanaga restored his fastball velocity to its usual levels in his most recent start against the Chicago White Sox after a few outings where it lost some life, the pitch was still hit hard when batters did make contact, yielding a 97.4 mph average exit velocity. Considering how reliant he is on his heater -- it comprised half of his entire pitch total against the White Sox -- that's an issue that needs to be addressed immediately.

Because he makes a living on pounding the upper part of the zone with fastballs, there's no use in trying to convert him into a groundball pitcher. Fly balls will always be a feature of his game. It's really a matter of helping him keep the ball in the yard so the Cubs' brilliant outfield defense can do their jobs.

If there's a silver lining here, it's that Imanaga does tend to go on binges with allowing homers. After giving up just three in his first seven starts this year, he allowed 14 over his next six. From that point forward, he went five of eight starts without allowing any homers, only to enter the current rut he's in. If he can get back to his midsummer self, then maybe we've got something worth gambling on; if not, it's hard to see how the Cubs trust him in the postseason.

There's also a matter of newfound competition that is putting more pressure on Imanaga than ever. Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Matthew Boyd are near-locks to be in the playoff rotation. That leaves one open spot for Imanaga, David Peterson, Ben Brown (if healthy), Edward Cabrera, and the smattering of bulk reliever types currently in the bullpen.

Imanaga has, by default, been the Cubs' most-featured starter this season because he's stayed healthy. Assuming the above group is ready to fire on all cylinders come October, that badge of honor won't mean much for his case to be Counsell's No. 4 starter. Instead, he'll have to earn that job over the next six weeks, proving he can limit homers when it matters most.

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