Cubs may have less money to spend than fans hoped after Jeff Passan update

After finishing the 2026 season with a payroll around $269 million, according to spotrac, and over $100 million coming off the books this offseason, there's been an expectation that the Chicago Cubs should be active and aggressive this offseason. That expectation hasn't matched the messaging that has followed the Cubs at the GM Meetings this week.

The GM Meetings started with the Cubs making sure the message was put out there that they won't be involved in the bidding for Tarik Skubal, and since, nothing that's been reported since suggests that the team is planning on spending heavily.

That includes the latest from ESPN's Jeff Passan. Passan listed Kaima Taira as the perfect free agent for the Cubs, and while that does make sense, he also included some details that suggested the Cubs are operating with their budget in mind before the lockout.

"Whether owner Tom Ricketts will provide the budget to fill those needs is the real question. Because as much sense as Skubal makes for the Cubs, the expectation is they won't be especially involved. And as much as they need a closer, Bednar and Morejon might find themselves outside of the Cubs' price range, too."

Cubs' offseason spending plans may be far worse than fans expected

There also needs to be a reminder that while the Cubs finished the season with payroll pushing close to $270 million, they entered the season closer to the luxury tax line of $244 million. Depending on the source, the Cubs were either just above or just under $244 million when the season started. That's a more accurate target for what to expect from the Cubs entering the 2027 season.

But even that number requires some context, considering there's no telling what, if any, the luxury tax threshold will be in 2027. That will be determined with the next CBA. The Cubs also, generally, prefer to leave some room for in-season additions. That's why 2026 should be viewed as the exception to how the Cubs operated, considering they had consecutive years before that where their payroll was under $240 million.

Where does that leave the Cubs for this month? Currently, according to spotrac, their projected payroll is $168,724,047. That leaves about $78 million in space before they reach the luxury tax level as they currently know it to be. Given the uncertainty that aways in December and beyond, chances are the Cubs don't want to walk right up to that line.

Giving them a $10 buffer, it would seem that around $68 million is what to expect from the Cubs this offseason in terms of their spending. In other words, not the full $100 million-plus that came off their books at the start of the offseason.

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