Cubs may be letting the MLB lockout become an excuse for doing nothing in November

With less than one month until the lockout is expected to begin, the Chicago Cubs haven't given fans much to get excited about. Already, they've been ruled out of the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, and heavy doubt has been cast on their willingness to play with the big kids when it comes to Seiya Suzuki, Teruaki Sato, Adrian Morejon, Michael King, and more. That's not to say there haven't been any rumors whatsoever in their favor, but those holding out hope for higher-impact signings might want to guard their hearts. Again.

Nonetheless, they're still likely to make a lot of moves this offseason because they simply have to. Free agency has left them with a rotation full of more holes than Swiss cheese, and that was before Ben Brown's surgery was announced. The Athletic reported that they'll be looking to nab at least three established starters, and just about everyone else is on the table, from Trevor Rogers to Dustin May and Kaima Taira. One would expect, with activity likely to ramp up before the December 1 deadline, that they would want to get their shopping started now before the deals start flying.

That might not be the reality, though. Jesse Rogers recently appeared on ESPN Chicago with Waddle & Silvy, where he was asked whether Cubs fans or White Sox fans would be happier with their offseason overall. As far as work done before the lockout, he chose the Sox. "I can say with pretty good reporting analysis here that the Cubs are not going to do as much as you think or want them to this month," he said. "And it's possible they don't do their biggest things until after the lockout."

Rogers goes even further than that, though. He further believes that it's unlikely the Cubs' moves will be satisfying from a quantity or quality perspective before the lockout. That ultimately could mean missing out if the market for starting pitching moves quickly, as somewhat expected with the Padres, White Sox, and other teams aggressively shopping in that aisle. Worse, that tracks with early indications that the CBA negotiations and questions about the future of MLB's financial system will weigh on the Cubs' willingness to target bigger contracts.

On the one hand, that's not entirely shocking. As much as urgency may be needed if other teams start taking names off the board, Jed Hoyer's front office under Tom Ricketts has always leaned more conservatively during times of financial uncertainty. However, it would be massively disappointing nonetheless, considering the last time the lockout loomed, they went out and secured one of their top targets at the time, Marcus Stroman. It also goes against expectations heading into the offseason that they'd be among the most active organizations given their many needs. Buzz from the GM meetings paints the picture of a team more concerned with value than solving its problems right now.

The Cubs' path to a successful offseason may get harder without more aggression

Now, there are caveats aplenty. Rogers does believe the Cubs at least get one solid move done, even if it's not the big fish that people would want. David Peterson seems like a strong candidate to be that move after he bounced back to a solid 3.70 ERA following his trade from the Mets to Chicago. The nature of the NPB posting system and how the 45-day window works is also that if they want Taira, they'll literally have to sign him before the lockout, too.

That's still not ideal, but getting one arm in the door at least makes the mountain they have to climb less daunting when activity resumes. The trade market also exists. Bruce Levine recently predicted there's a strong possibility Matt Shaw could be moved in a deal to add a starter. There's a strong chance any swaps might also wait until a new financial system is in place, regardless of the teams involved.

This is before mentioning that this team is projected at around $78 million under the first luxury tax and around $100 million below their cash total in 2026. We don't know how the tax and penalties could change, but that is enough room to get to work early. There may be a lot of options in the tier below Skubal, but the Cubs would be taking an unnecessary risk by not identifying and quickly targeting names they want. There's no guarantee that the moves they need to truly compete with the Brewers will be waiting for them on the other side of the work stoppage.

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