Cubs may be better off going the less traveled route in the ninth inning

If the Chicago Cubs are going to get anywhere this postseason, Craig Counsell needs to break free from the managerial straitjacket imposed by the notion of a dedicated, one-inning closer.

The Cubs’ prospects for success will be enhanced if Counsell can see his way clear to do what few other teams dare: manage his bullpen by feel as opposed to by rote plan.

The brutal truth is that even before they placed Daniel Palencia on the 15-day injured list, the current iteration of the Cubs did not have a pitcher capable of consistently delivering in what has come to be recognized as closer duties.

For most of this season, the Cubs have been using Palencia in the role of ‘closer,’ although that was not always the case. They began the year with Ryan Pressly in that role, then switched briefly to Porter Hodge before landing on Palencia. In fact, no fewer than 10 Cubs have earned at least one save this season

And at a superficial level, Palencia’s handling of the role has been pretty good. He’s recorded 22 saves in 25 opportunities with a 3.00 ERA. That being so, there may be an inclination once he returns from the IL to put him back in the designated closer's role.

But since relievers are by nature short-inning creatures, their performance is rarely straight-line; rather, it often contains wild fluctuations. That’s absolutely true of Palencia, especially since the All Star break.

He’s worked 19 times over that period, covering 16 2/3 innings, and seven times he’s allowed at least one run. Sunday’s meltdown was only the latest and most egregious example. That stretch includes nine saves, but also four losses and one win that began with a blown save.

His 5.92 post-break ERA is greatly influenced by Sunday’s meltdown.  But even excepting that event, Palencia’s 3.44 post-break ERA is more than double what it was (1.57) entering the break.

The attraction to Palencia is easy to understand; he throws hard. “Gasolina” is the term used to describe his four-seamer, which averages better than 98 MPH. That’s elite level speed.

The problem is that a lot of the second-level data explains why, despite that velocity, opponents have found it increasingly easy to hit Palencia. In a sentence, he hasn’t yet learned the intricacies – control and command – needed to take full advantage of his best asset.

Despite that velocity, Baseball Savant puts Palencia’s “hard hit” rate at 47.3 percent, a fatally high figure in a league where the average is just 36 percent. He has a below average chase rate, and his pitches leave bats 3.5 mph faster than normal.

Why? Although Palencia throws a high-velocity heater, it is also abnormally flat. Among all Cubs front-end bullpen arms – Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomerantz – Palencia’s four-seamer generates the least spin, 2,239 RPM entering play Sunday. The result is a relatively small 12 inch vertical drop that – despite its speed -- is easier for batters to track and contact. Pomeranz’s spin rate and vertical drop are, by contrast, 2,641 RPM and 17 inches; Thielbar’s comps are 2,322 and 19, Keller’s are 2,376 and 14.

Palencia also allows a lot of fly balls, and in Wrigley those can be deadly. When hit, his pitches are in the air 59 percent of the time.

Here's how the Cubs can handle closing games moving forward

What to do? The present iteration of the Cubs does not include any one closer the team can reliably turn to in a pressurized, post-season circumstance. Thielbar, Keller and Pomeranz are all better than Palencia in some respects, but of course none of them can produce his “gasolina.”

In that circumstance, the best course is to forego the notion of a designated one-inning closer and go old-school. If a reliever is going well, Counsell should resist the standard practice of pulling him after one inning in favor of the next guy in line and just leave the incumbent in.

To pick one example, had Counsell followed this plan rather than the standard one he did follow on Sunday, Thielbar – who needed only seven pitches to navigate the seventh inning – would have stayed in the for the eighth and possibly the ninth.  Or, Keller would have been available to close.

Granted, the two-inning reliever might need a day of rest, but what of it? The game would have been won and you’d still have several fresh arms available for Monday.

Leaving relievers in when they are going well may sound revolutionary, but it’s probably the Cubs’ best bet right now for the postseason. It’s also a simple playing out of one of the truisms of life: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.