Cubs may already need to shift focus to offseason after history delivers brutal Wild Card truth

The Chicago Cubs are on the precipice of disaster after just one postseason game. After Matthew Boyd led off Game 1 of the Wild Card Series in San Diego by allowing back-to-back homers to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Cubs already have their backs against the wall and are facing elimination. While the Cubs and Kevin Gausman gear up for what could be their last stand, however, fans should be braced for what appears to be inevitable: an early start to the offseason.

Being one game from elimination is already a tough spot to be in, but the recent data is even worse for the Cubs than it might seem on the surface. That's because, when looking back at previous series in the three-game Wild Card era, fifteen of sixteen series ended in the winner of Game 1 ultimately advancing to the division series. That would give the Cubs a paltry 6.25% chance of advancing to the next round, never mind making it past the Brewers and into the NLCS.

The writing may already be on the wall for the Cubs' playoff run

Those odds are, obviously, grim. The silver lining for the Cubs is that this is hardly a statistically predictive metric. FanGraphs' model, for example, gives the Cubs a more robust chance of advancing to the next round. They put the odds around 21%, which while still unlikely is a great deal better than previous postseason history would indicate on its own.

Ultimately, whether the Cubs can advance to the next round or not will depend on if the big bats can step up in a way they failed to during Game 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, and Seiya Suzuki are great hitters, but they didn't look like it in yesterday's game as they went a combined 1 for 10 with two walks. No amount of botched checked swing calls or deflating pitching performances can justify that lack of production, and the team's biggest stars will have to hit when the lights are brightest.

If that happens, perhaps Chicago can defeat the odds and give the fans back home reason to celebrate after all. Failing that, however, Cubs fans should prepare themselves for an early offseason. That's a worrisome prospect, given what a tumultuous offseason it might be. Whether you're worried about the looming lockout or just don't know what's in store for a team that will have to replace most of its outfield and starting rotation this winter, this offseason will be an uneasy one.

Ultimately, as Cubs fans head into what could be the final game of the 2026 season, they should try to enjoy it as much as they can. As Theo Epstein said 15 years ago, every opportunity to win is sacred. Depending on what happens with the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations, this could be the Cubs' last opportunity to win for a very long time. There's nothing left to do for the fans but make the most of what little time there is left before an uncertain offseason creeps in with no end in sight.

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