Cubs' low-ball free agent offer in 2024 cost them a 7.0 WAR player

Back in Nov. 2023, the Chicago Cubs pried longtime Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell away from their NL Central rivals, setting the stage for what many believed would be a transformative offseason.

Sure, the additions of Shota Imanaga and Michael Busch were steps in the right direction but it's safe to say the roster Counsell led last year was far from being dramatically improved over what David Ross had to work with the year prior. And, wouldn't you know it, the Cubs delivered an 83-79 record and missed the postseason - the exact same result the team produced in 2023.

One of the team's biggest needs heading into last winter - and, arguably again this offseason, was a legitimate solution at third base. Longtime defensive stud Matt Chapman was a free agent after two spending five years in Oakland and two in Toronto - and, according to The Athletic (subscription required), despite that glaring need, the Cubs came in with an uncompetitive offer.

Chapman confirmed the Cubs discussed a one-year deal with him that winter, but he was looking for some sort of multi-year protection. He went on to say that if Chicago had gone to two years with an opt-out after one, he would have seriously considered coming to the North Side - but the front office and ownership didn't budge.

The Cubs wound up reuniting with Cody Bellinger on a three-year deal with a pair of opt-outs - only to trade him less than a year later in a move that amounted to a straight salary dump. The return in the deal (besides significant financial savings) came in the form of right-hander Cody Poteet, who was designated for assigment and then traded to the Baltimore Orioles for - you guessed it - cash considerations.

Meanwhile, Chicago used seven different players at the hot corner last year - and have now pushed all their chips in on top prospect Matt Shaw after putting forth a comically low offer to another free agent third baseman this winter, Alex Bregman - and even to make that offer, Hoyer had to beg and plead with Tom Ricketts for those dollars.

There's no question the Cubs would have been better than an 83-win team last year had they signed Chapman, who went on to post a monster 7.1 bWAR campaign with the Giants, winning a fifth Gold Glove and finishing 11th in NL MVP after hitting 27 home runs, tying a career-high with 39 doubles and driving in 78 runs. He played so well that San Francisco signed him to a six-year, $151 million extension last summer that runs through the 2030 season.

The fit was obvious from the start with both Chapman and Bregman - but the Cubs' small market, value-focused mindset cost them a real shot at both. It's just the latest chapter in a disappointing string of small-to-mid-tier free agent wins amidst an endless sea of major free agent letdowns.