Cubs know that with warmer weather, home runs will become a major factor at Wrigley

Chicago's cooler spring air has turned into humid summer heat. As every Chicago Cubs fan knows, that's typically a sign the winds are a-changin' at Wrigley Field. This weekend has seen the wind, which had been blowing in for the most part at The Friendly Confines this year, do a 180 and howl straight out. A phenomenon that is nothing new or unusual, but a humble reminder that the days of summer are here.

The Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer, wetter summer for Illinois this year, which will breed plenty of hitter-friendly days at Wrigley. Again, while not a surprise, it's particularly notable now, considering how pitcher-friendly the weather on the North Side played last season. Even in a summer that, temperature-wise, was not abnormal per the experts.

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As a reminder, Wrigley was the second-lowest-ranked stadium on the Statcast Park Factor metric chart for overall offense last year; 100 is average, and Wrigley was 91. This included having an 85 score in home run factor, which was 26th in baseball. There was a good article from MLB.com's Mike Petriello discussing wind impacts on balls last year. Not surprisingly, the park with the most batted balls impacted (both pushed back and carried further) was Wrigley Field, and last year, the ratio of balls losing feet on the wind vs. gaining was pretty big.

Regardless, it's warm and windy now and it's time to embrace the flags on top of the board pointing northeast.

Hitting home runs has not been a problem for the Cubs, as they entered Saturday's game with the fifth-most in baseball and second-most in the National League. They are also sixth in fly ball rate (41.1 percent), so they can get a few more of those deep fly balls to go over the ivy-covered walls. What is notable is that they are also a fly ball-heavy pitching staff, especially the starters. The pitching staff sports a 40.1 percent fly ball rate (ninth-highest in baseball) with the starters at a 42.1 percent flyball rate (seventh-highest in baseball).

This should not be a big surprise, considering the staff has a lot of known fly ball pitchers on it. For example, Shota Imanaga, who his returning soon, is known for home runs being his Achilles heel. Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are currently both top-10 in flyball rates among starters in baseball. Taillon's 18 homers are the most given up by a pitcher in the Majors to this point. The good thing is they are all still very effective because they have good command and keep traffic on the bases low, so a lot of homers are solo shots, which are easier to live with.

We can see where the wind can help and hurt, but it can hurt less with execution and roster optimization. This team is going to give up their share of homers, and it will likely finish on the higher end in baseball. That is not going to change. With that said, if they can keep traffic lower and prevent those homers from doing as much damage, that gives them a better chance to win. Jed Hoyer will also be acquiring arms, and hopefully some more whiffs and groundballs can get added to the mix.

Is this to say every game at Wrigley this summer will be like the infamous 23-22 game on May 17, 1979? No. It's also not to say every fly ball off a Cubs opponent will sail over the wall. But there is a fact that a hunk of the deep fly outs we saw in the early months and much of last year will end up going over the fence. Home runs are something the Cubs pitchers deal with, and it will get a bit tougher in weather like this weekend.