Cubs have troubling Daniel Palencia red flag that makes bullpen turnaround harder to trust

While the Chicago Cubs' ticket to the playoffs is all but punched at this point, though a tough September has left some fans panicking. FanGraphs places their odds of missing the postseason entirely at something approaching a rounding error at this point, but whether or not this team is built for a deep run in October is another question entirely. The position player corps is the very best in the majors this year, and it will only get better when Dansby Swanson finally returns.

Unfortunately for Cubs fans, everything else is a major question mark. The rotation was patched up somewhat by deadline additions of Kevin Gausman and especially Clay Holmes, but its still an open question whether or not the Cubs have enough quality rotation arms. The bullpen is in even worse shape, with even season-long stalwart Jacob Webb finally showing cracks. The return of Daniel Palencia from injury seemed like a good omen at first, but since then it's looked like a nightmare.

There's no question that Palencia is the Cubs' best reliever when he's right. Last year's version of the righty saw him turn in a 2.91 ERA with 22 saves across 54 appearances. That's the sort of player the Cubs need right now, but this new version of Palencia looks nothing like he used to. He's sporting a below-average 4.70 ERA on the year, with peripherals to match. As if the run-prevention numbers weren't bad enough, a look under the hood reveals concern about his ability to bounce back this year.

As Bleacher Nation's Brett Taylor pointed out, Palencia hasn't been getting his usual swing-and-miss anymore. Palencia's allowed more walks (2) and as many homers (1) as he's recorder strikeouts in the month of September so far, and more concerning he recorded just his second whiff of the month during the team's series opener against the Pirates. Two total whiffs across his first 75 pitches of the month is a tough look for the righty, especially when combined with a no-longer triple digit heater.

Craig Counsell will need to get creative this October without Daniel Palencia as a high-leverage option

Any objective observer would say that Palencia cannot be trusted in the late innings come October, given his recent performance. Relievers are notoriously fickle, so it's possible that assessment could change if his stuff ticks back up over the next week or so. Unless that happens, however, the Cubs will have to figure out a way forward without leaning on him in key situations.

That's not going to be easy to do, with so few worthwhile relievers in the bullpen. The idea of someone like Shelby Miller, Jaxon Wiggins, or even Justin Steele coming from Triple-A to act as the bullpen's savior might be comforting, but it's not something to rely on. Perhaps Webb will be able to figure out the issues that have led him to blow three save attempts in two weeks, but that's equally wishful thinking.

The full list of relief arms actually performing in the majors right now is Aaron Civale and Ryan Rolison. Two middle relief arms won't be able to carry the Cubs through October, so they'll need to find more value somewhere. If it can't be Palencia, then perhaps it can be Webb or Ryan Zeferjahn or even someone like Steele returning from rehab. If none of them can step up, then Cubs fans should brace themselves for an early exit from the playoffs.

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