Cubs have a slam dunk postseason lineup change sitting right in front of them

When it comes to who will be the Chicago Cubs’ leadoff man in the 2025 postseason, there’s no better answer than Nico Hoerner. The second baseman has been a model of consistency this season at the plate and is riding a crazy hot streak into October. The fact that Hoerner is within bat’s reach of a National League batting title only strengthens his case to secure the leadoff spot going into the playoffs.

While Hoerner has been on an absolute heater in September (.359 batting average), his consistency all season has been the real story. Hoerner’s batting average by month has looked like this: .281 (April), .290 (May), .295 (June), .284 (July), .283 (August), and .359 (September). This consistency paired with his microscopic 7.1 percent strikeout rate demands the highest possible number of at-bats that only a leadoff man sees. He’s also stolen 28 bases on the season, which has often put him into scoring position before the hitter after him has even swung the bat.

The measurement of a successful leadoff hitter will always be rooted in getting on base

What teams look for in a “prototypical” leadoff hitter has really shifted over the past few decades. The criteria that made a player leadoff material often included a high-contact, speedy guy who could steal bases. Over the years, however, many teams went away from that in favor of more power atop the lineup. Though I can see the argument where more power is always better, it more times than not comes at the expense of batting average and on-base percentage.

I may be labeled “old school” or out-of-touch when it comes to this issue, but so be it. Hoerner is currently hitting .299 on the season, just six percentage points behind Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, who leads the N.L. in batting average (.305). Whether Hoerner surpasses Turner or not shouldn’t matter when it comes to the discussion of him leading off when he’s the only Cub hitting over .270.

While I have enjoyed first-baseman Michael Busch’s success in the leadoff spot, I still look at the fact that in that role he has hit .220 with a .287 OBP in 47 games. Meanwhile, Busch has hit .272 with a .367 OBP when batting fourth, which he’s done in 41 games this year. In contrast, Hoerner has hit .284 in the limited time he’s been given in the leadoff spot this season (16 games).

Hoerner’s body of work as a whole has earned him the opportunity to bat leadoff. In the Postseason, everything is amplified and pitchers make far less mistakes. It will be crucial for the Cubs to get traffic on the bases early and often, and Hoerner is best equipped to make that a reality for the Cubs come October.