The Chicago Cubs were unable to complete the three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, dropping the series finale by a 3-1 final at Wrigley Field. On the mound, Jameson Taillon allowed three earned runs on four hits over six innings of work, but it wasn't enough as the offense fell flat heading into Thursday's off-day.
The problem with those four hits? Three of them left the yard - a major trend emerging for the veteran in 2025. Taillon leads all MLB pitchers with 13 home runs allowed on the year in just 49 2/3 innings of work, putting him on pace for a career-worst mark by a wide margin.
He's allowed seven long balls over his last two starts, including a real disaster against the Mets at Citi Field on May 9, when he allowed five earned on nine hits (four homers) in just four innings of work.
A fired-up Dustin is done with hearing praise for a quality start. He wants to see better from Jameson Taillon. pic.twitter.com/bZ8Fuu6TvX
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) May 15, 2025
But five of his nine outings have been quality starts, tying him with Matthew Boyd for the team lead. His walk rate ranks in the top eight percent of qualified starters, and he ran off a month-long stretch where he pitched to a 2.80 ERA over six starts from the start of April to the start of May. During that span, he allowed four home runs total - so it's clear where his pain point is right now.
He's been so focused on filling up the zone, it's led to a lot of damage from opponents even with two strikes in the count. Opposing hitters have a half-dozen two-strike homers against Taillon this season, again something that was a problem in his latest start against Miami.
"That’s just not a good trend and I need to put a stop to that,” Taillon told reporters after Wednesday's loss. “I probably had room to expand a little more."
A number of the metrics aren't loving what he's done to this point in the year. He carries a 5.36 FIP and 4.62 xERA and he's not been getting much in terms of swing-and-miss, pacing below league average in whiff rate, chase rate and hard-hit percentage.
Two horrendous outings - one against the Mets and an early April start against Arizona - account for much of the damage done against him this season. But those two starts, which have badly skewed his overall numbers, paired with this recent long-ball issue has a lot of folks souring on him here in mid-May.
Regardless of which camp you're in, everyone - Taillon included - knows he has to limit the two-strike damage and keep the ball in the yard. Expect him to look to expand the zone when he's ahead in the count next time out and get back in the win column.
