Cubs' expected Shota Imanaga farewell could lead to an obvious NL West fit

Shota Imanaga had his share of ups and downs over the last three years with the Chicago Cubs, but finished on a high note in 2026. Ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after receiving (and accepting) one last winter, he now hits the open market in search of a new home.

Unlike last offseason, where there seemed to be much uncertainty over whether or not Imanaga would return to the Cubs, this time around it feels like we've reached the end of the road. Personally, I think he'd be fun on the South Side, but in their annual top 50 free agent predictions piece, MLB Trade Rumors experts were unanimous in picking his next team: the San Francisco Giants.

Here's a bit of what they had to say about Imanaga:

Where Imanaga could shine, however, is in a spacious park that can help to mitigate some of those home run troubles. The Giants and Rangers stand out as two teams in cavernous home parks who have plenty of need for innings. The Padres, Cardinals, Royals and Marlins all play in parks that naturally suppress home runs, and it’s of course possible that a team in a more neutral park is enamored of the whiffs and command and thinks they can make some tweaks to scale back the home runs.

Shota Imanaga might need some help to be successful moving forward

In short, if Imanaga is going to find success as he gets deeper into his 30s, he's going to need some help from a friendly home ballpark. He's given up home runs at a historic rate during his MLB career and, while he's largely been able to overcome that issue, it will undoubtedly be the biggest knock against him in free agency.

The left-hander eclipsed 170 innings for the second time in three years in 2026, working to a 3.77 ERA in 32 starts. He posted very strong chase, whiff, strikeout and walk rates, so the upside is definitely there - something Cubs fans know. When he's locked in and spotting his pitches, he can be near-unhittable. But the issues with the long ball have held him back and could do the same on the open market.

MLBTR predicts a two-year, $40 million deal for Imanaga. A spacious home ballpark could do wonders for him and help him become a solid #2 behind someone like Logan Webb. This feels like a smart play for Buster Posey given the Giants' glaring pitching needs.

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