Cubs' expected Seiya Suzuki qualifying offer shouldn't change his free agency fate

All signs point to the Chicago Cubs extending Seiya Suzuki a qualifying offer this offseason. The qualifying offer falls in around $23.15 million, and while the Cubs had one of their free agents accept their qualifying offer last year, the same likely won't be the case for Suzuki.

Teams have been already been lining up for Suzuki, and it goes well beyond just this offseason. After the Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker ahead of the 2025 season, there was speculation that Suzuki could be traded. Instead, the Cubs dumped Cody Bellinger's salary on the New York Yankees.

This past season, when there was a thinking that the Cubs may need to great creative while addressing their need for pitching, there was speculation that Suzuki could be dealt. It was also tied to the reality that there weren't many right-handed hitters available on the trade market during the summer.

The same is going to be the case this off-season. It's an extremely thin free-agent market, and that is especially true for impact hitters. Suzuki is positioned to be one of the best hitters available this offseason.

Along those lines, teams are already lining up to pursue Suzuki. It's been no secret that the Toronto Blue Jays will be among the interested parties, and the same is likely true for the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. The Mariners were one of the teams floated as a potential trade fit for Suzuki over the past year.

Cubs may give Seiya Suzuki a qualifying offer but the outcome feels inevitable

Regardless of the qualifying offer attached to Suzuki's free agency, it seems likely that there will be a bidding war for his services. That is likely the main reasons why the Cubs won't be in a position to bring the veteran outfielder back.

With over $100 million coming off their books this offseason, the Cubs certainly have the money available to be at the top of the market for Suzuki. The hurdle is that a majority of their available resources will be geared towards adding pitching, and that likely rules out the team winning a bidding war for Suzuki.

If so, the Cubs would be in a position to get compensation pick for Suzuki's departured. Based on them paying into the luxury tax during the 2026 season, they are in line to receive a draft pick after the fourth round if Suzuki is elsewhere next year.

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