Cubs could be blindsided by NL Central arms race if trades go through

It's no secret that the Chicago Cubs plan on upgrading their pitching staff this offseason, with the team expected to be in the market for power pitching in both their rotation and bullpen. The Cubs likely won't be racing out to sign the names at the top of this winter's free-agent class, but the trade market has a complicated roadblock this offseason.

The top starting pitchers traded this offseason could all come from National League Central teams. The Athletic's Jim Bowden recently compiled a list of the 10 players likely to be traded this winter, and it includes pitchers that the Cubs are familiar with. Bowden has the Milwaukee Brewers' Freddy Peralta and the Cincinnati Reds' Hunter Greene near the top of the list, with Sonny Gray of the St. Louis Cardinals also getting a mention.

The issue for the Cubs is that it's nearly impossible to draw up a scenario where they would be a logical suitor for any of the three. The Brewers and Reds are both vying for the top spot in the division, so it wouldn't make sense for them to want to trade their perceived ace to their biggest threat. The Cardinals may be entering a reset year in 2026, but trades between two of baseball's biggest rivals have been few and far between.

Cubs face a nightmare scenario if these NL Central trades go through

It could also create a nightmare scenario for Jed Hoyer as he targets pitches from teams outside of the division. Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan. Sandy Alcantara and MacKenzie Gore are all pitchers who could be on the move, but there would be league-wide interest in all of them. Whereas other teams could use one of the NL Central teams as leverage in trade talks, that option won't be available for the Cubs.

The exception could be if the Pittsburgh Pirates are willing to trade Mitch Keller. There was a time during the season when it seemed like the Cubs and Pirates were eventually going to come together on a deal involving Keller. Talks slowed between the two teams as the deadline approached, but with an entire offseason, it wouldn't be a complete surprise to see them pick back up.

Keller certainly doesn't have the shine of the other pitchers who could be moved this offseason, but if the Cubs are looking for stability, he wouldn't be the worst option.