Cubs can't sound alarm on Michael Busch slump yet but problem is getting louder

Michael Busch is less than 30 plate appearances away from topping his total last season, and considering there's still over a month left of regular-season games, it speaks to the reality that he's been cemented into the Chicago Cubs' starting lineup as their first baseman.

When Busch was on his way to hitting 34 home runs last season, the fact that Craig Counsell treated him like a platoon player was a topic of conversation. That hasn't been the case this season, as Busch has routinely been in the lineup against left-handed pitchers.

Busch sports a wRC+ of 112 against lefties this season, which makes his season perplexing. Overall, Busch has been fine. He had a notable slump at the start of the season, and while he certainly has turned the page from those struggles, what hasn't returned is his power.

Through 126 games this season, Busch has 15 home runs. For reference, he played 155 games last year when he hit 34 homers. Beyond home runs, there's also been notable dips in Busch's batting average, slugging percentage, and ISO.

Cubs shouldn't panic about Michael Busch yet but concern is growing

Busch went from .261, .523, and .261 in those markers last season to .242, .386, and .144 this season. Both his slugging percentage and ISO dropped over 100 points from last season. The assumption has been that Busch has become the long-term answer for the Cubs at first base, and while that still is the perception, the team will need to figure out the reason for his power outage.

Along those lines, there are few things to point out. Busch isn't squaring the ball nearly as often this season as he was last season. His barrel rate this season is at 8.7% this season, down from 17.1% last year. His hard-hit rate also dipped by 8% this year.

The reason for this could be tied to his swing decisions. His bat speed dropped by one mile per hour this season, and he's swinging at pitches outside the strike zone 2.5% more than he was last summer. Along those lines, he's making contact with pitches outside the strike zone over 54% of the time this season. Coupling the dips in his hard-hit metrics this season with how often he is making contract with pitches outside the strike zone, and that could be the tell for his power regression this season.

A first baseman who doesn't hit for power is a rarity, and considering what the Cubs could face with the potential departures of Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ this offseason, they will need Busch to regain his power stroke. It's going to start with his swing decisions.

If the struggles continues, perhaps there is a shift in Busch's projection with the Cubs, but that's not a bridge that needs to be crossed right now.

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