Cubs can't ignore concerning Matthew Boyd problem with MLB playoffs quickly approaching

After the trade deadline, it seemed clear that the Chicago Cubs playoff starting rotation would be some order of Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, and Clay Holmes. Holmes certainly is tracking to be in the playoff rotation, and as of now, feels like the clear choice to be the Game 1 starter. The problem is that behind Holmes, the Cubs may not have the certainty they thought they would have, considering the moves that were made at the deadline.

The first month of Gausman's run with the Cubs hasn't been a complete disaster, but it's been a reminder of the struggles he had with the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the openings months of the season. There was hope that Gausman would return to the form during the stretch, and while some metrics did suggest a positive regression to the mean, a 5.31 ERA through seven starts isn't comforting.

Gausman's struggles is why there's an added layer of concern to the inconsistency Matt Boyd has shown throughout the season. Boyd was a regression candidate entering the season, considering the 2025 season was the first time in recent memory that he wasn't just able to stay healthy, but pitched to an All-Star level. Injuries have certainly complicated matters for Boyd this season, but he hasn't quite been the All-Star he was last year.

Cubs face uncomfortable Matthew Boyd reality just as postseason decisions are looming

Boyd has an ERA of 4.16 through 20 starts this season, but the concern lies with how he's looked since the start of August. He has an ERA of 5.13 through his last eight starts, and a FIP of 5.43. While there have been some starts where things unraveled for Boyd at the end of his starts, he's allowed three-plus runs in six of those eight starts. When things go bad for Boyd, the unravel quickly to the point where the game is nearly lost when he makes his exit.

The silver lining is, by default, starting pitchers have a short leash during the playoffs. If Boyd is capable of getting through a starting lineup once, that may be all the Cubs ask of him. The first time through, opposing hitters are slashing .195/.267/.354 against Boyd. Things take a turn immediately the second-time through, considering there are jumps by nearly 100 points in each category.

There's the solution, only having Boyd go one time through a starting lineup, but that creates a larger problem for the bullpen, considering they need someone to cover those innings. Something that has been a hard ask of the bullpen of late.

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