Cubs are panicking about Cam Smith - but for a completely unjustified reason

If you haven't already added it to your stable of podcasts, check out the new Bleacher Nation Cubs Podcast - Brett and Michael, as always, do really good work and it's a great way to keep tabs on all things Chicago Cubs.

Their latest episode, which comes on the heels of the Cubs getting manhandled by the Dodgers in Tokyo, covers a variety of topics but the one I want to spend some time on here is Cam Smith's monster spring training showing with the Houston Astros.

I'm sure you're all aware, but just in case you spent the winter on a remote island: Smith was the Cubs' first-round pick last summer and quickly rocketed up prospect rankings thanks to a .313/.396/.609 slash line between A, High-A and Double-A. Chicago sent him to Houston in the Kyle Tucker trade this offseason, along with right-hander Hayden Wesneski and infielder Isaac Paredes.

At the time, nobody was losing their minds about Smith's inclusion in the deal. They didn't love it, sure, but the general understanding was that to get a player like Tucker, you had to give up value in return. But this spring, Smith has been the talk of the Grapefruit League, posting a 1.315 OPS with the Astros and putting himself in the conversation for an Opening Day roster spot.

For whatever reason, his monster spring has Cubs fans rethinking the Tucker trade just two games into the 2025 season. But I'm here to tell you: it shouldn't - and here's why.

Do you know who has been a longstanding spring standout? David Bote. Every year, he looked like a guy and then settled back into his regular season pattern of mediocrity. He did it again this year with the Dodgers, slashing .400/.471/.700 - and guess what? He didn't even make Los Angeles' Opening Day roster in Tokyo.

That might feel like cherry-picking here, but the general point stands: spring training success (or lack thereof) is in no way indicative of how a guy's numbers will look after the 162-game regular season. Factor in the fact the quality of the pitching Smith has faced this spring has been roughly that found at the Double-A level and you get the point: all of this needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

The point Brett and Michael make in the episode is spot-on. His numbers aren't what should make Cubs fans panic over losing him in the Tucker trade. But the fact the Astros are legitimately considering putting him on the Opening Day roster certainly lends some credibility to the hype.

Houston wants to contend in 2025 - even after losing Alex Bregman and Tucker this winter. They're not punting on the season for the sake of player development. If they include Smith, it's because they think he can be a valuable contributor at the big-league level. That's worth taking note of. But stop living and dying by how he's performed in fewer than three dozen spring at-bats - it's not worth your time or stress.