Cubs are crushing NL Wild Card field in every stat besides the one that matters most

This is going to sound biased coming from a Cubs fan, but the Chicago Cubs really do deserve better than this. They're currently trapped in a rock fight for Wild Card seeding with the Phillies and red-hot Padres, to the point where all three teams are separated by just one game in the standings heading into the weekend.

Now, the Cubs do have the tie-breaker over both squads, having won both season series. That looks like it'll come into play down the stretch, where every game is going to matter.

Still, it's hard to explain just how much better the North Siders have been this season than their direct competition. Be it by run differential, expected record, or especially record against .500 or better teams, the Cubs are practically lapping the NL Wild Card field.

NL Wild Card race shouldn't be this close, but the Cubs can only look forward

Let's lay everything out so that we can really understand just how uneven this deadlocked race is.

NL Wild Card Picture By the Numbers

Run Differential:
Cubs: +143
Phillies: +34
Padres: +30

Expected Record:
Cubs: 90-63
Phillies: 80-73
Padres: 80-73

Record vs. .500 or better teams:
Cubs: 33-29
Phillies: 24-32
Padres: 26-37

Obviously, what really matters is the actual record, so there's nothing we can do besides hope that the Cubs will take care of business against the Reds, Marlins, and Red Sox down the stretch. Still... look at those disparities. The Phillies and Padres have been awful against .500 or better team this year. The Cubs are one of just four NL teams that are above water (i.e., over .500) in that split.

Of course, the timing of the schedule itself matters. The Cubs swept the Dodgers back in early August when they were in their awkward, post-deadline slump; there's no telling how that series might have gone if the two played each other a few weeks earlier or later.

But it's worth noting that, besides the Brewers, the Cubs won or split their season series with the other four teams currently in the NL playoff bracket. Meanwhile, the Phillies lost four of their five season series, and the Padres lost three of their own. By most metrics, these three clubs aren't really in the same ballpark.

None of that matters now, though. Even though Chicago is winning the run differential game by more than 100, they still need to win the most down the stretch to secure the top Wild Card spot. Call it unfair or unlucky or whatever you want, but that's just the nature of baseball. Winning in high-pressure situations is what separates great teams from champions, after all.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow