Chicago Cubs Rumors: Josh Hader trade would be a major risk

There was some surprise last offseason when the Chicago Cubs were not heavily involved in the sweepstakes for free-agent closer Josh Hader.

Given the connection between Craig Counsell and Hader, the belief was that the closer could be an option for the Cubs as they looked to solidify the backend of their bullpen. Hader signed five-year deal with the Houston Astros worth $95MM. Ironically, it was Hader's deal with the Astros that likely pushed Héctor Neris toward signing the one-year deal with the Cubs.

Overall, Hader's first season with the Astros is about what one would expect. Hader totaled 34 saves with only 4 blown saves while posting an ERA of 3.80. Hader's xERA, 2.68, and xFIP, 2.93, do suggest that he was better than his ERA would indicate.

Diving further into Hader's 2024 season, however, there may be some red flags. Hader's 2024 season was defined by being dominant in certain months and nearly unusable in others. Over the course of the six-month season, there were three months where Hader had an ERA over 5, and in two of those months, his ERA was over 6. On the other hand, Hader had two months where his ERA was under 2 including a 0.68 mark in August.

The Astros, missing the American League Championship series for the first time in seven years, are at a crossroads with their roster construction. Alex Bregman is a free agent this offseason and Kyle Tucker only has one more season of team control.

A Josh Hader trade wouldn't be the fix that Cubs' fans think it is.

Given that fact, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported over the weekend that the Astros may be looking to trade Hader. Beyond his inconsistencies last season, it would seem the main reason why the Astros would be willing to move Hader is to save money given the contractual statuses of Bregman and Tucker. That is why Levine's rationale for the Cubs being interested in trading for Hader doesn't quite add up. Levine mentioned that if the Astros were willing to absorb some of the money remaining on Hader's contract, the Cubs would be involved in the conversation.

Short of the Astros being willing to take on most, if not all, of Hader's remaining money, there isn't a scenario where a trade makes sense for the Cubs. For better or worse, the Cubs are not going to change their strategy when it comes to constructing their bullpen. That means trading for Hader, who turns 31 next April, doesn't fit into their mold given the four years attached to his current contract and the signs of potential regression appearing at times last season.