Chicago Cubs' long-term payroll projection hints at Kyle Tucker contract

The Chicago Cubs' decision to trade for Kyle Tucker has been universally praised by not only those within Major League Baseball but by those who cover baseball.

Over the past two seasons, there have been overwhelming questions about what Jed Hoyer was doing as the Cubs' President of Baseball Operations. In 2023 and 2024, Hoyer fielded rosters where, if you squint, you could see the semblance of a postseason roster, but only if the dominoes fell in the right way. With Tucker's arrival, there's a more clear path toward projecting the Cubs to reach the postseason in 2025.

If there has been pushback to the Cubs trade for Tucker, it has been over the fact that the superstar outfielder is set to reach free agency next offseason. Combining Tucker's contract status along with the fact that the Cubs offered up Cam Smith in the trade, some feel it was a reach as Tucker's arrival does not make the team an instant World Series threat.

The Cubs have the flexibility to sign Kyle Tucker without pivoting from current strategy.

When it comes to the Cubs signing Tucker to a new contract next offseason, likely one that surpasses $400MM, it's understandable that the front office does not get that benefit of the doubt. The Cubs haven't been shy about their aversion to where the free-agent market is trending.

What is being lost in that expectation is the outlook of the Cubs' roster and their payroll commitments following the 2026 season. As things stand now, the Cubs have under $50MM in payroll obligations for the 2027 season. In addition, the 2026 season marks the final season of the current contracts of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Looking at those two facts, while a Tucker contract would mean Hoyer extending to lengths he hasn't been comfortable going to in the past, it doesn't jeopardize the long-term flexibility of the team's roster or payroll situation.

Now, this could all be the honeymoon feeling following the Tucker trade but the idea of the Cubs signing the outfielder to a long-term contract shouldn't be scoffed at.