Cade Horton is giving the Cubs no choice but to start extension talks

It's no secret that Cade Horton has been on a monster run for the Chicago Cubs in the second half. However, after his last dominant start, capping off a brilliant 1.11 ERA stretch since July 1, national eyes have been on the young righty. He soared to +160 betting odds in the Rookie of the Year race at FanDuel, soaring past other talented young players like Jacob Misiorowski and Isaac Collins of the Brewers and Drake Baldwin of the Braves. While it's exciting to see him ascend to that level so quickly, there is a not insignificant downside for the team.

Under the current CBA, players who finish first or second in Rookie of the Year voting are awarded a full year of service time, regardless of when they were brought up. Horton was brought up on May 11 thanks to injuries on the big league roster, meaning the Cubs would effectively lose an extra year of control. That still leaves them with five affordable years of a young arm who's defying all expectations, but it makes thinking about the future all the more important.

We already had Horton at the top of our list of extension candidates the Cubs should approach before the season's end, but the real possibility of some hardware changes the calculus. His ERA is now down to 2.88 on the year, with a solid 3.70 FIP to boot. His strikeout rate doesn't match his prowess in the minors, but he's ramped things up in the second half with 8.27 K/9 while also posting a solid 2.68 BB/9. The production has been beyond ace-like since the All-Star break, capped off by a minuscule 0.48 ERA in 37 innings that's drawn comparisons to Jake Arrieta.

There's definitely some regression to be had and adjustments to be made as the league continues to see Horton, but his potential is clear. This is the kind of arm to bet on long-term. Pitching is more expensive than ever lately — this past offseason saw one arm after another, from Max Fried and his $218 million deal to Alex Cobb and his $15 million pact, vastly exceed projections. The Cubs can't afford to let a player of this upside, who has only just turned 24, slip by without some cost certainty and extra control.

What could a Cade Horton extension look like for the Cubs?

The Cubs wouldn't be alone in thinking of an extension if they start negotiations with Horton's camp. The division rival Brewers see the same value in locking up Misiorowski for the long haul. Horton doesn't have quite the same hype and some injury history stemming back to his Tommy John surgery at Oklahoma, but it's easy to imagine similar deals for the two pitchers. Extending the righty would be a type of deal Jed Hoyer hasn't done yet, but one that would fit his M.O. to bring some cost control to a rotation facing some uncertainty with Justin Steele set to miss a healthy chunk of next season.

As for what the deal would look like, the most obvious solution would be adding two years of control. From Horton's perspective, that would allow him to hit free agency at age 30 or 31 and give him a chance at a big payday. A reasonable comparison may be something like Brayan Bello's six-year, $55 million deal with the Red Sox that was signed in 2024 ahead of his age-24 season. The agreement came after a 2023 campaign in which he threw to a 4.24 ERA over 157 innings and came with a seventh-year option worth $21 million if he blossomed into the ace Boston hoped.

Horton is throwing better than Bello was and still has some time to add more value, but he won't end up with quite the innings load. He also has enough of an injury concern and is only in his first season, whereas Bello had pitched in part of 2022 before throwing his first full season in 2023. Wherever the number could end up, it'd be a small price to pay for control of a blossoming ace into his prime, and a vote of confidence in his future.