Breaking down the Cubs' rotation battle: who's a lock and who's fighting for a spot?

Fighting: Brad Keller

After signing a minor-league contract with the Cubs on Feb. 3, 29-year-old Brad Keller has been turning heads this spring. The unsuspecting right-hander has had a rough career after seeing initial success as a rookie (3.08 ERA in 140 1/3 innings) for the Kansas City Royals way back in 2018. Since then, Keller has struggled to stay on a roster with injuries and poor performance limiting him to 128 innings between three different teams since 2023.

But Keller has been flashing a fastball topping out a 98 MPH and averaging 96.3, up a full two ticks from last season's average. Keller also looks incredibly comfortable on the mound with good command of his pitches and inducing ground balls at a 48 percent rate. The team has been letting Keller go multiple innings, seemingly getting him stretched out to see how far he can make it into games.

It's unclear whether he has shown the team enough to give him a shot on the roster but he is certainly in play for the long-relief role in the bullpen with Assad's injury. it could be smart from a roster standpoint as well, holding off other guys in the minors until either Assad returns or Keller crashes out. If he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, Keller's deal allows him to opt out and seek a job elsewhere.

Fighting: Ben Brown

There's a good chance that Ben Brown solidifies himself in the Cubs starting rotation at some point this season. The 25-year-old clearly has the attitude and confidence to succeed in the majors, as we saw in his rookie season early last year. If you take away his first appearance of 2024, when he was thrust into action against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers and gave up six earned runs, Brown's ERA over the other 53 2/3 innings is 2.68 with 63 strikeouts.

A strange neck injury derailed what was looking like a very promising season but Brown is back to 100 percent now. But since he has two minor league options left on his contract, Brown cracking the Opening Day roster is not a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have several players with no options left that can be utilized in the opening weeks or months of the year while Brown can remain stretched out with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

But barring another injury, Brown's blistering fastball and deadly knuckle curveball are proving to be some of the nastiest pitches anyone on the Cubs staff has to offer. He will pitch games with the Major League team in 2025 and there's a good chance he stays there for years to come.

Triple-A: Jordan Wicks

Former first-round pick Jordan Wicks is also in the mix for the starting rotation. Counsell is on record saying that Wicks will not be utilized as a reliever in 2025 if the team doesn't need him to pitch out of the bullpen, making it very likely he will also begin 2025 in the Iowa Cubs rotation since he has three minor league options left.

Wicks will be 26 in September and he has yet to fully establish himself in the majors (5.02 ERA in 17 starts). But there are a lot of reasons to be bullish on his future. His small sample size of work was impacted by an oblique injury last season. But during the offseason, Wicks told Marquee Sports Network that he developed a new workout routine and diet which helped him shed 20 pounds in preparation for 2025.

It's always felt like we haven't seen the best of Wicks on the mound yet and he will have runway this year. If someone on the team goes down with an injury, Wicks will likely be the next guy called up after Brown.