Breaking down the Cubs' rotation battle: who's a lock and who's fighting for a spot?

The Chicago Cubs enter the 2025 season with excitement and uncertainty surrounding their starting rotation. While a few players at the top are definite locks, the back end remains up for grabs with several pitchers vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

In this breakdown, we'll examine the locks for the rotation, the pitchers who will be utilized as depth and the wild cards who could surprise everyone.

Lock: Shota Imanaga

After his incredible breakout season in MLB last year, where he made 29 starts, struck out 174 batters with a 2.91 ERA and notched an All-Star appearance, Shota Imanaga will be on the mound for the Cubs' first regular season game on March 18. The southpaw will face the deepest lineup in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers in his home country of Japan, where he will duel another former Nippon Professional Baseball star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

There's a lot of pressure on Imanaga to replicate his freshman campaign as the Cubs did not pursue a top starting pitcher this offseason. But the concerns are mitigated by Imanaga's beaming confidence and nasty stuff on the mound. His teammates have alluded to Imanaga not even utilizing his full pitch mix in 2024, meaning Imanaga could have plenty of tricks left in his arsenal to fool hitters aside from his trademark splitter.

Lock: Justin Steele

Although Justin Steele was sidelined from his start on Saturday with illness, the Cubs seemed confident that he will make the trip to Japan and start game two of the Tokyo Series. Other than an early hamstring injury that sidelined Steele for a few starts in 2024, he has been as reliable as anyone on the Cubs for the past three seasons. Since the beginning of 2022, Steele has a 3.10 ERA in 78 starts, with one All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting.

Like Imanaga, the Cubs need the best version of Steele in 2025 to help eat innings and lead the top of the pitching staff. He's proven he can be that kind of guy in 2023, when he made 30 starts and tossed 173 1/3 innings. Staying healthy is the main goal for Steele because his stuff generates a good amount of soft contact for the team's elite infield defense to take care of (career 47.9 ground ball%) while still striking out batters at a solid clip (career 24.4 K%).

Steele is arguably the most reliable pitcher on the Cubs and he will be a major component of the 2025 rotation.