Breaking down the Cubs' All-Star Game chances, position-by-position

The Cubs have one of MLB’s best records, so it stands to reason that the National League All-Star team ought to be laden with Cubbie Blue next month in Atlanta.

But with voting for the starters underway, a reality check could be in order. Last season the Cubs had only one All-Star, pitcher Shota Imanaga. They should beat that, landing two or possibly three starting spots. But the depth of the National League overall may make it difficult for any other deserving North Siders to be selected.

Here’s a position-by-position look at how members of the NL Central division leaders are likely to fare when it comes to fleshing out the National League All-Star team.

Catcher: For the season’s first month, Carson Kelly was one of the major surprise stories. As of May1 he was batting.360 with a 1.347 OPS.

Kelly has cooled noticeably since then. He hit just .203 in May with only two homers, and a .447 OPS for the month. His hot start still makes him a plausible choice as part of the league’s catching corps with a chance at being voted the starter.

Kelly’s major competition comes from Dodger catcher Will Smith, who has a stronger and also a more consistent stat line and who represents a fan base just about as rabid as the Cubs’ base. As of the end of play June 3, Smith carried a .323/.433/.487 slash line that stands up well against Kelly’s .268/.385/.528. Smith’s 2.3 WAR also beats Kelly’s 1.9.

If Kelly isn’t the starter, he would still be an entirely plausible choice as a backup. Kelly’s principal challenger for backup duty is Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman. He has a .281/.328/.491 slash line, and while Kelly’s WAR and defensive numbers are better Goodman has one big intangible going for him: The NL has to take at least one Rockie, and Goodman’s basically that guy by default.

The 2024 NL All-Star team only rostered two catchers. If as is entirely possible, NL manager Dave Roberts elects to carry three catchers, Kelly would probably still make it. But it’s not as sure a thing as it appeared to be a month ago. Kelly may need a solid month of June to lock down his spot.

First base: With a .276 average, nine home runs and an .887 OPS, Busch has been a big reason behind the Cubs’ success to date.  But if he has any chance to make the NL All Star team, it’s likely as a third first baseman.

That could happen. Last year the NL carried four first baseman. But if Busch makes it, he probably eats up Kelly’s roster spot.

Busch’s two problems are large ones: Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso. Freeman is having a stellar season: a league-leading .363 average and a league-leading 1.044 OPS. Both have nine homers, but Freeman leads Busch in RBIs and doubles.

Alonso’s credentials are almost as imposing as Freeman’s. He’s hitting .290 with a .949 OPS, marks that are superior to Bush’s solid .276 and .887. Of the three, Busch arguably has the better defensive numbers. But first base is a hitter’s position.

Second base: Nico Hoerner is at the top of the list in several defensive metrics. Sophisticated voters may like that. But the hordes of rubes who only look at offensive numbers will scan his .715 OPS, his zero home runs, and turn to Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan, Jake Cronenworth or Jeff McNeil.

However deserving, Hoerner is playing a defense-first position; this isn’t his All-Star year.

 Shortstop: Dansby Swanson has picked up the offensive pace and his defensive rep is unquestioned. But all that likely won’t be good enough to ensure an All-Star appearance.

Swanson has three plausible competitors. Francisco Lindor has better offensive stats plus a rabid Mets fan base. Elly De La Cruz has celebrity, and Mookie Betts actually has the best defensive numbers in the foursome.

The NL carried three All-Star shortstops last season: Trea Turner, C.J. Abrams and De La Cruz. But even if they carry three again this year, Lindor, De La Cruz and Betts all could line up ahead of Swanson.

Third base: You can sum up Matt Shaw’s All-Star prospects in three words: Not this year.

Outfield: Pete Crow-Armstrong, the WAR leader, is a mortal lock to start in center field. Even in the unlikely event that Kyle Tucker isn’t voted in as the starting right fielder, his .915 OPS and 12 home runs make him a good bet as a backup. Together, they are the two surest Cubs All-Stars.

Tucker should win election, but he faces a tough field. It includes James Wood of Washington, Corbin Carroll of Arizona, Teoscar Hernandez of Los Angeles, and Austin Hays of Cincinnati. The league’s outfield depth diminishes the chances that Ian Happ could join his teammates In Atlanta.

DH: Seiya Suzuki shares with Pete Alonso the NL lead in RBIs; both have 53. Not so long ago, that stat alone would have guaranteed Suzuki’s selection. Not anymore.

Runs batted in don’t carry the cachet they used to. You know who has cachet?  Shohei Ohtani has cachet. Kyle Schwarber has cachet. Here are the slash lines for the three top competitors. As you scan this, bear in mind that the NL only rostered one true All-Star DH last season.

Pitchers: Shota Imanaga’s injury cost the Cubs their best chance at a mound All-Star. No Cub pitcher ranks among the top 30 in pitcher WAR, among the top dozen in ERA, or the top 14 in workload. The staff ranks fifth in ERA, but that accomplishment has been more of a team effort than attributable to any single All-Star-level performance.