Brad Keller's recent struggles and what they mean for Cubs bullpen at trade deadline

The Chicago Cubs are leaving the All-Star break with a one-game lead in the NL Central in hand, with a clear and obvious need for pitching reinforcements at the trade deadline.

With that deadline just two weeks away, the Cubs will obviously be in the market for both starting pitchers and relievers. But, whereas the rotation has blatant gaps at the top (next to Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd) and bottom (while waiting out injuries to Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad), the bullpen's situation is a bit more murky.

Daniel Palencia has emerged as the no-doubt closer, and he's getting rather impressive support from the team's cache of middle relievers, including Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Brasier, Drew Pomeranz, and Chris Flexen.

However, the late-inning supporting cast for Palencia is lacking. Even as Ryan Pressly continues to find his groove, his disastrous start to the year remains firmly in the mind of Cubs fans. And, unfortunately, the once-infallible Brad Keller has begun to look... well, fallible.

Brad Keller's cold stretch coming at worst time for Cubs' bullpen

Prior to July, Keller was Craig Counsell's surefire set-up man, posting a 1.91 ERA and 2.45 FIP through the season's first three months. He allowed just one earned run between April 25 and July 4.

Then, the calendar flipped, and Keller has become a disaster. This month, the right-hander has surrendered a14.54 ERA and equally-gross 12.32 FIP.

That's simply untenable production out of any spot in the bullpen, let alone for a set-up man on a contending team.

Now, the good news is, like most relievers, Keller is experiencing his turmoil in a really small sample. All seven of the runs he's given up in this stretch came in two outings, against some potent bats in the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees' lineups.

What's really fascinating about this stretch is that Keller, who has been outrageously good at keeping the ball in the park this year, has been terrible at preventing home runs. After giving up zero home runs through July 4, he suddenly has three on his ledger.

This isn't a velocity issue or a movement issue (both of which would suggest some fatigue); instead, this just appears to be a good pitcher missing his spots for the first time in a while. Perhaps with some rest over the All-Star break, Keller can return to his usual dominance.

But... is that really a bet the Cubs are going to be willing to take this year? What if something is actually wrong with Keller, or what if hitters have simply figured out how to attack him? He's never had a season where he was this effective (save for the shortened Covid-19 campaign), and he was a mess last year with the Red Sox and White Sox as he made the full-time transition to the bullpen.

It was always likely that the Cubs were going to trade for at least one reliever at the deadline this year. Keller's struggles probably don't necessitate a change in plans, but they do exacerbate the need to execute the ones already in place.

Hopefully, Keller can move past these few bad outings and return to being the lockdown reliever he was early in the year. And, hopefully, the front office doesn't bet the season on that outcome occurring.