Bleacher Report just dropped a Cubs prediction that feels way off

It's become a Chicago Cubs fan's rite of passage to complain about the team's lack of any real offseason activity, despite being mentioned in rumors for most notable free agents that have already signed.

Nevertheless, plenty of top-tier options still exist on both the free agent and trade fronts, from Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette on the position player side of things to Nick Pivetta and Pablo Lopez on the mound.

One thing we do know is that the Cubs would like to add a frontline pitcher to the mix, especially with Justin Steele's uncertain timeline still hanging over the rotation. Matthew Boyd was great last year and Shota Imanaga carried the pitching staff in 2024, but asking any member of that trio of lefties to replicate career-best performances in 2026 feels like a major gamble.

Thus, it should be music to all of our ears when Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly predicts that the Cubs will sign Framber Valdez to a four-year, $114 million contract. Unfortunately, for reasons we should all be too familiar with, the logic behind such a move just isn't there.

Framber Valdez has too many red flags to appeal to overcautious Cubs

Even at a nine-figure price point, there's reasons to like Valdez as a fit for the Cubs. He's exceptionally durable, having tossed at least 175 innings in each of the past four seasons. Likewise, the southpaw is averaging 4.1 fWAR since the start of the 2022 campaign, and his elite penchant for generating groundballs would play extremely well in front of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson.

However, Valdez only averages about 94 MPH on his primary fastball (his sinker) and tends to get hit very hard. As he grows older and his velocity wanes, will he be as effective at keeping the ball on the ground? If not, he could start to fade the way of Imanaga, who has become one of the most homer-prone pitchers in the sport.

Plus, if the Cubs were willing to pass up on Tatsuya Imai — who brings the velocity and strikeout stuff the North Siders covet — on a very reasonable contract, what's to say they'll be willing to splurge on Valdez, a 32-year-old whose most notable moment in 2025 was him purposefully trying to hurt his own catcher?

For what it's worth, Kelly also mentioned the Cubs as suitors for Ranger Suarez (30 years old, 22.1 percent career strikeout rate) and Zac Gallen (30 years old, 21.5 percent strikeout rate in 2025). We already know the latter is a valid connection given the Cubs' semi-failed pursuit of Gallen in December, though neither pitcher brings the velocity nor youth that Jed Hoyer is targeting in a big-money arm.

It'd be nice to see the Cubs do something that isn't signing a veteran reliever to a one-year deal, and there'd be more reasons to celebrate than worry if they inked Valdez to a long-term deal. But given how the offseason has played out to this point, no one should expect Jed Hoyer to change his tune for one of the more questionable aces still lingering in free agency.