Astros are rumored to be a near-lock for a perfect Cubs free agent target

It's very early in the offseason and rumors certainly aren't in short supply right now, but MLB insider Jon Morosi sure made it sound like one of the biggest free agent names out there was a foregone conclusion in a recent appearance on MLB Network.

"I did some checking the last couple days to confirm that at the deadline in July, the team that was most interested in him (was) the Houston Astros….they have a significant need for starting pitching help….Especially with Framber (Valdez) being a free agent, Dylan Cease to the Astros probably has as much of a chance of happening as any other free agent prediction out there.”

Astros, Cubs and several other fits for free agent Dylan Cease

Cease figures to be one of the most coveted starting pitchers of the winter, poised to hit free agency after spending the last two seasons with the San Diego Padres. The former Chicago Cubs farmhand, who was traded to the South Side in the oft-talked about 2017 Jose Quintana trade, is coming off a 'down' year, but his relative age and skillset make him a very attractive option.

Cease made 32 starts this year for the Friars, leading the league with 11.5 K/9. His 4.55 ERA might be off-putting, but a 3.56 FIP and 3.46 xERA suggest he was the victim of some bad luck. He's got a pair of top-5 Cy Young finishes under his belt in the last four years and the swing-and-miss in his game could be a real difference-maker for the Cubs' rotation.

The Astros, meanwhile, need to replace left-hander Framber Valdez, who, like Cease, hits the open market this offseason. The southpaw has been an anchor for Houston for the better part of a decade, earning two All-Star selections and three top-10 Cy Young finishes. In 2025, he fired 192 innings of 3.37 FIP ball, setting himself up for a nice payday heading into his age-32 campaign.

Whether it's Cease, Valdez or any of the other free agent arms, the Cubs figure to be major players in the pitching market - and a healthy list of potential trade candidates available should give Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins plenty of levers to pull as they look to upgrade the rotation. But if they have their heart set on Cease, they'll have to get past the Astros - and be ready to hand out the largest guarantee in franchise history for a pitcher.