The Chicago Cubs seem to have made up their minds with the decision that Cody Bellinger will be traded this offseason but it continues to be a scenario that the front office may not have fully thought out.
From an outsider's perspective, it seems that Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins began the offseason with the mindset that Bellinger was going to opt out of his deal with the Cubs and test free agency. Bellinger is a good but not great player, and losing him through free agency wouldn't have been the end of the world for the Cubs, considering the added runway it would give the team's top prospects as well as the added financial flexibility.
Throwing a wrench into those plans, Bellinger exercised his player option for the 2025 season and is now on the books with a $27.5MM price tag. This is not a terrible outcome for the Cubs, as in a season where they will have to reach the postseason, a healthy Bellinger certainly helps that cause. Where Hoyer and Hawkins seemed to have erred is that they had tunnel vision on Bellinger not being on the roster, so much so that they feel they are locked onto the idea they have to trade him.
It's a thinking that doesn't quite make sense and it would seem that executives across Major League Baseball are questioning the Cubs' approach. The latest from an anonymous general manager in speaking with Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
The worst-kept secret at the GM meetings was the Cubs offering Bellinger to anyone and everyone. So far, no team has expressed strong interest. “Come on," one GM said, “who’s going to touch that contract? The risk is just too great for the production."
As the Bellinger trade rumors begin to take shape, the indication seems to be that the Cubs' sole purpose for wanting to move the former National League MVP is to save money. In theory, if the Cubs use the saved money to address other areas of need on their roster, there is some sense to that--especially with the likes of Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Matt Shaw nearing the Major League level.
The issue with that hope is Hoyer's spending habits would suggest that scenario isn't on the table.
The Cubs' front office will need to be careful in a potential trade of Bellinger. The optics of the trade, at least from the messaging that has surfaced, don't shine the Cubs in a positive light. But with Bellinger also being a valued member of the team's clubhouse, it's a move that may come with more risk than reward.