Adjustments made in 2024 can propel Kyle Tucker to new heights with the Chicago Cubs

It's not news that the Chicago Cubs' prized acquisition, Kyle Tucker, is an incredible ceiling-raiser for a team with aspirations to contend. The former Houston Astros All-Star is a bonafide superstar who impacts the game with the bat, glove and on the basepaths.

A perennial 5.0+ fWAR player, Tucker's production soared to new heights in an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, and if he continues that level of production he's liable to give the Cubs a level of production at the plate not seen since Sammy Sosa's prime.

Throughout his career, Tucker has been a very good hitter who does a little of everything at the plate. His career slash line of .274/.353/.516 has been good for a wRC+ of 139, basically the equivalent of what Seiya Suzuki produced compared to a league-average hitter in 2024.

That's excellent production to be sure, but in 2024 Tucker upped his offensive game to another level slashing .289/.408/.585 which was good for a 180 wRC+. That wRC+ would have tied him for third among qualified hitters with the newly-minted $765 million dollar Juan Soto and was just one point shy of the incomparable Shohei Ohtani. In short, he went from a very good hitter to the rarified air that only the legendary few can reach.

What drove Tucker's performance was a combination of an increase in walk rate, going from drawing a free pass 10.8 percent of the time for his career to 16.5 percent last season while maintaining his strikeout rate the same (16.0 percent for his career versus 15.9 percent in 2024), and increasing his power production posting a .296 ISO which was significantly better than his already impressive .242 career mark.

The data shows that a change in Tucker's approach can vault him into a new stratosphere with the Cubs

It's easy to say he walked more and hit for more power therefore he produced more, but what matters is whether or not that was the result of a repeatable change in his approach or just random variation. The good news for Cubs fans is the data backs up that there is a conscious shift in Tucker's process that can be replicated going forward.

For example, a player may increase his walk rate by simply becoming less aggressive swinging the bat, but that can have a detrimental affect on his performance in other areas. Oftentimes, an increase in walk rate is accompanied by an increase in strikeout rate as the player passes on hittable pitches in the name of patience, ultimately putting himself in unfavorable counts that result in negative outcomes.

That trap can also lead to a decrease in power production as the hitter might pass on a pitch he could punish early in the count in an attempt to draw a walk. With Tucker, however, this is not the case.

Tucker was absolutely more patient in 2024 than he ever was before, but this patience was warranted. He cut his swing rate at pitches outside the zone to 16.8 percent, which was substantially less than his career average of 23.1 percent.

He also swung at fewer pitches in the zone, with his Z-Swing% decreasing from 74.5 percent to 66.4 percent. Swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone is always a good thing, and his contact rates will show that his increased selectivity in the zone led to him laying off the tough pitches while punishing mistakes.

In addition to swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone, Tucker made less contact with those pitches, seeing his O-Contact% drop from 61.9 percent for his career to 56.3 percent last season. When he did make contact, it was more often to a pitch in the zone and one that he could drive.

Tucker's launch angle and barrel rates both increased in 2024. His career 17.3-degree launch angle improved to 21.2 degrees, and his barrel percentage rose from 10.7 to 12.7 percent. As a result, he posted a career-low groundball rate of 28.0 percent, down substantially from his career mark of 35.2 percent.

Fewer ground balls meant more fly balls as Tucker saw that number increase from 45.1 percent for his career to 52.4 last season. The rate at which those fly balls left the yard also saw a dramatic leap, with 19.5 percent of them going for home runs in 2024 versus 15.0 percent over his career.

If you're keeping score at home this means Tucker was more patient on pitches that can't be hit hard while being aggressive on the pitches on which he could do damage. He hit the ball in the air more often and those flyballs also left the park at a higher rate than ever before. He did all of this while not striking out any more than normal, which indicates that this was both a conscious and repeatable effort.

Tucker has consistently been a 30-homer guy, eclipsing that mark on several occasions: posting 30 homers in 2021, 29 homers in 2022 and 30 homers in 2023. His 23 dingers in 78 games last season put him on pace for 47.8 long balls over 162 games. He's also consistently been a .350 OBP guy, but if he can sustain his 2024 walk rate, that will continue to rise dramatically.

If Tucker can sustain these tweaks to his approach in 2025, he should consistently be a 40+ home run threat with an on-base percentage of .400 or better. That kind of production isn't just elite – it's MVP caliber and a level that few not named Judge, Ohtani, or Soto can even dream of reaching.

The Cubs didn't just get an All-Star in Tucker, they got potentially a top-five hitter in the entire league. That's all the more reason why Chicago should be motivated to keep him in the fold well beyond 2025.