A quiet offensive issue could haunt the Cubs in their quest to de-throne the Brewers

The Chicago Cubs have prided themselves on their ability to get on base. In 2025 they were top-10 in team OBP (.320) in baseball and have been in the top 10 in that category over the past three seasons. Things do get a bit interesting going forward regarding the team's OBP abilities. This is based on looking at the established hitters projected to be on the squad in 2026, some of the unknowns, and who is likely departing. Will this team have that same ability to get on base next year?

Let's start with the elephant in the room: Kyle Tucker. He was the team leader in OBP (.377) and was tied with Ian Happ in the walks department (87). Even with his struggles hitting the ball down the stretch, he never lost the ability to take any pitch outside the zone and draw a walk. Regardless of his offensive struggles over the final few months, that is a big on-base presence that is likely gone.

Right now, the safest bets to have a notably above-average (~.315) OBP are likely Happ, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki. Although it's difficult to see any of them being a .370+ on-base-type hitter next year. Happ typically delivers around a .340-.345 OBP with Suzuki between .326 and .366. Busch has a .339 OBP in 307 games as a Cub. While the Chicago first baseman has only gotten better, projecting a Tucker-like OBP right now is a bit steep. To play a bit conservative, it would make sense to project him in the .330-.340 OBP range in 2026.

Nico Hoerner could be considered part of that group, as he posted a very solid .345 OBP in 2025 and is capable of being in that .340 range. Unlike the others, though, he is always looking to go up and put the ball in play. While a hitter like Happ is patient and draws his walks, he also hits around .240-.250 every year, while Hoerner hits .280-.290. Part of Hoerner's OBP success is his ability to hit for average, while Happ's walk rate (13.1 percent) is more than double Hoerner's (six percent). A similar end result in OBP, but two very different types of hitters.

Most of the other key hitters with at least a decent sample in the Majors are not huge on-base guys. Dansby Swanson will hover around average (career .318 OBP), or slightly above. Pete Crow-Armstrong is still very young, but him turning into a high-OBP guy seems unlikely even if he does grow as a hitter. Miguel Amaya, when healthy, has turned into a very solid hitter but not big in the OBP department (.302 OBP), and Carson Kelly has a career .312 OBP.

Cubs' young players offer potential on-base upside in 2026

The big questions arrive with the less-experienced hitters. Matt Shaw posted a .295 OBP in his rookie 2025 campaign. He sports a career .388 OBP in the Minors and .413 in college ball. He got on base at an excellent clip in other levels; it's a matter of how he can grow in the Majors.

Owen Caissie was an on-base machine during his time as a Cubs minor leaguer (.384 MiLB OBP). If he's a big part of the Cubs' plans in 2026, the hope is that translates at the big-league level. The same can be said for Moisés Ballesteros (who impressed with a .394 OBP in 20 MLB games last year) and Kevin Alcántara (.353 OBP in MiLB). The skills are with these players, but like any prospect, it's unknown what translates long-term at the highest level for any of them.

Putting this all together, it feels good that the Cubs already have a handful of proven above-average OBP guys. None of them are elite, though. Tucker fell into that category, with the seventh-highest OBP among qualified hitters in baseball. This is not to say a full year of Shaw, Cassie, Ballesteros and/or Alcántara cannot bring more quality OBP contributions, but it's a gamble. There is also a matter of how they fill out their bench and depth. If they could land a utility/bench guy with good OBP skills a la Chris Coghlan, Tommy LaStella, or Mike Tauchman, that could be a difference-maker as well.