A locked-in Cubs outfield picture could tie one hand behind Jed Hoyer's back

In a couple of weeks' time, we'll get our long-awaited answer on Cody Bellinger's status for 2025. The two-time All-Star has an opt-out that could put him back on the open market again this winter - but regardless of whether or not he returns, the Chicago Cubs have an outfield mix that's largely locked in.

Late in the year, Bellinger took over starting duties in right field from Seiya Suzuki, who had struggled defensively at different times throughout the year. Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong experienced his share of growing pains at the plate early in the season but seemed to hit his stride late in the summer and Ian Happ quietly turned in one of the best years of his career in left.

The outfield mix will likely look, more or less, the same in 2025. Let's look at it, position by position, and then dig in on how it could impact Jed Hoyer's moves this offseason.

Cody Bellinger was solid but fell short of delivering what the Cubs needed from him offensively

Cody Bellinger was solid - but his production hardly justified the $27.5 million salary. His 2.2fWAR was half of what he produced in his first year with the Cubs (4.4 fWAR). The exact breakdown of $/fWAR is an imperfect science, but the latest data suggests it to be somewhere in the $7 million/WAR range. In other words, Bellinger's production was worth a little over $15 million last year - leaving a sizable gap in value there.

The market seems to be 50/50 on whether or not Bellinger opts out at this point. If he returns, Craig Counsell will likely pencil him in as the starting right fielder, leaving Suzuki in the DH spot, where he excelled. Chicago will need him to re-discover the slug in his game that played such a huge part in his bounceback 2023 performance because if he's back and that contract is on the books, Hoyer not only loses dollars in his budget, but the roster flexibility needed to bring in a big bat.

Seiya Suzuki seems best suited for a DH role moving forward

Seiya Suzuki hasn't been an above-average or even adequate defensive outfielder since coming over from Japan, despite his five Golden Gloves during his NPB career. But 2024 set a new low-water mark for him, at -10.8 on Fangraphs' defensive value (Def) metric. The good news is he paired that subpar glovework with the best offensive year of his career, once again giving hope that he could be a dominant piece of the offensive puzzle moving forward.

Suzuki closed the year with a 138 wRC+, overcoming a career-worst 27.3 percent strikeout rate en route to a strong showing at the plate. Over the season's final five weeks, he solely appeared as the team's designated hitter and posted a .906 OPS in 29 games - while giving Craig Counsell a trio of Gold Glove-caliber outfielders patrolling Wrigley in Bellinger, Happ and Crow-Armstrong.

At least on paper, if Bellinger returns, Suzuki would slot into the DH role again in 2025. The problem with this is that it almost guarantees the Cubs running back the same lineup that went through a dramatic months-long slump this season. That would be a tough pill for the fanbase and a high-stakes roll of the dice for Hoyer, who is heading into the final year of his contract.

Ian Happ was again the definition of consistency for the Cubs in left

A Gold Glove finalist for a third straight year, Ian Happ did it all for Chicago in 2024, the first season under the three-year, $61 million extension he inked back early in 2023.

He set a career-high in RBI (89), tied his personal best with 25 home runs and was right in line with what he's done at the plate since 2022 in almost every other metric. At 3.6fWAR, Happ was one of the Cubs' most valuable position players, trailing only Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner - and was very solid with runners in scoring position (.870 OPS).

For whatever reason, Happ continues to fly under the radar despite showcasing remarkable consistency on a yearly basis. He's probably not the offensive centerpiece the team needs, but if Hoyer can find a way to add another heavy hitter to the mix and let his switch-hitter do what he does out of the leadoff spot, it could lead to good things for the Cubs moving forward.