A locked-in Cubs outfield picture could tie one hand behind Jed Hoyer's back

In a couple of weeks' time, we'll get our long-awaited answer on Cody Bellinger's status for 2025. The two-time All-Star has an opt-out that could put him back on the open market again this winter - but regardless of whether or not he returns, the Chicago Cubs have an outfield mix that's largely locked in.

Late in the year, Bellinger took over starting duties in right field from Seiya Suzuki, who had struggled defensively at different times throughout the year. Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong experienced his share of growing pains at the plate early in the season but seemed to hit his stride late in the summer and Ian Happ quietly turned in one of the best years of his career in left.

The outfield mix will likely look, more or less, the same in 2025. Let's look at it, position by position, and then dig in on how it could impact Jed Hoyer's moves this offseason.

Cody Bellinger was solid but fell short of delivering what the Cubs needed from him offensively

Cody Bellinger was solid - but his production hardly justified the $27.5 million salary. His 2.2fWAR was half of what he produced in his first year with the Cubs (4.4 fWAR). The exact breakdown of $/fWAR is an imperfect science, but the latest data suggests it to be somewhere in the $7 million/WAR range. In other words, Bellinger's production was worth a little over $15 million last year - leaving a sizable gap in value there.

The market seems to be 50/50 on whether or not Bellinger opts out at this point. If he returns, Craig Counsell will likely pencil him in as the starting right fielder, leaving Suzuki in the DH spot, where he excelled. Chicago will need him to re-discover the slug in his game that played such a huge part in his bounceback 2023 performance because if he's back and that contract is on the books, Hoyer not only loses dollars in his budget, but the roster flexibility needed to bring in a big bat.

Seiya Suzuki seems best suited for a DH role moving forward

Seiya Suzuki hasn't been an above-average or even adequate defensive outfielder since coming over from Japan, despite his five Golden Gloves during his NPB career. But 2024 set a new low-water mark for him, at -10.8 on Fangraphs' defensive value (Def) metric. The good news is he paired that subpar glovework with the best offensive year of his career, once again giving hope that he could be a dominant piece of the offensive puzzle moving forward.

Suzuki closed the year with a 138 wRC+, overcoming a career-worst 27.3 percent strikeout rate en route to a strong showing at the plate. Over the season's final five weeks, he solely appeared as the team's designated hitter and posted a .906 OPS in 29 games - while giving Craig Counsell a trio of Gold Glove-caliber outfielders patrolling Wrigley in Bellinger, Happ and Crow-Armstrong.

At least on paper, if Bellinger returns, Suzuki would slot into the DH role again in 2025. The problem with this is that it almost guarantees the Cubs running back the same lineup that went through a dramatic months-long slump this season. That would be a tough pill for the fanbase and a high-stakes roll of the dice for Hoyer, who is heading into the final year of his contract.

Hopefully this was just the beginning for Pete Crow-Armstrong

As is often the case with rookies, it took some time for Pete Crow-Armstrong to settle in at the plate. But when he did, the numbers spoke for themselves. In the second half, the defensive wizard turned the corner with the bat, posting a .262 average - a nearly 60-point jump over what he did before the All-Star Break.

From Aug. 2 on, Crow-Armstrong boasted an .816 OPS that, when paired with his glovework in center field and his elite baserunning abilities, made him one of the most impactful players in baseball. He'll head into 2025 as the starting center fielder and if he can build on the strides he made in the second half, PCA could be an offensive catalyst for Counsell at the bottom of the order.

When Crow-Armstrong and catcher Miguel Amaya turned the corner at the plate this summer, the Cubs' offense transformed into something with tremendous depth and potential. A catching upgrade and another strong campaign from PCA could go a long way toward helping Chicago punch its postseason ticket.