A locked-in Cubs outfield picture could tie one hand behind Jed Hoyer's back

In a couple of weeks' time, we'll get our long-awaited answer on Cody Bellinger's status for 2025. The two-time All-Star has an opt-out that could put him back on the open market again this winter - but regardless of whether or not he returns, the Chicago Cubs have an outfield mix that's largely locked in.

Late in the year, Bellinger took over starting duties in right field from Seiya Suzuki, who had struggled defensively at different times throughout the year. Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong experienced his share of growing pains at the plate early in the season but seemed to hit his stride late in the summer and Ian Happ quietly turned in one of the best years of his career in left.

The outfield mix will likely look, more or less, the same in 2025. Let's look at it, position by position, and then dig in on how it could impact Jed Hoyer's moves this offseason.

Cody Bellinger was solid but fell short of delivering what the Cubs needed from him offensively

Cody Bellinger was solid - but his production hardly justified the $27.5 million salary. His 2.2fWAR was half of what he produced in his first year with the Cubs (4.4 fWAR). The exact breakdown of $/fWAR is an imperfect science, but the latest data suggests it to be somewhere in the $7 million/WAR range. In other words, Bellinger's production was worth a little over $15 million last year - leaving a sizable gap in value there.

The market seems to be 50/50 on whether or not Bellinger opts out at this point. If he returns, Craig Counsell will likely pencil him in as the starting right fielder, leaving Suzuki in the DH spot, where he excelled. Chicago will need him to re-discover the slug in his game that played such a huge part in his bounceback 2023 performance because if he's back and that contract is on the books, Hoyer not only loses dollars in his budget, but the roster flexibility needed to bring in a big bat.