A key Cubs rival may have shot themselves in the foot with a qualifying offer move

For weeks, this had all the makings of a regrettable decision. The Cincinnati Reds, a team expected to field a payroll of around $100 million in 2025, extended a $21 million qualifying offer to swingman Nick Martinez - a pitcher who bounced from the big leagues to Japan before returning to MLB action three years ago.

This weekend, Martinez accepted the qualifying offer, bringing him back into the fold of a Reds pitching staff that ranked 18th (4.09) in ERA last season. He was lights out in 2024, especially as a reliever. But his work as a starter down the stretch offers hope he can bring front-of-the-rotation performance to new manager Terry Francona's staff next season (2.42 ERA in 11 starts late in the season).

That worked out to 3.5 fWAR on the year - a solid season, but just his first eclipsing even 2.0 fWAR in a single campaign. Set to turn 35 next August, Martinez will look to continue his mid-30s breakout and help the Reds punch their postseason ticket for the first time (excluding 2020) since 2013.

But Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall just bet one-fifth of his team's projected payroll on that being the case. And as a small-market team, it's a decision that, if it goes wrong, could really hamstring your ability to build a well-rounded roster or make critical in-season additions.

The thing the Reds have going for them is a tremendous group of young, extremely affordable talent - which makes this move possible in the first place. Elly de la Cruz, Matt McClain and the likes are an enviable mix of names to build around. But I can't understand handing out this kind of money to a guy who, frankly, really put it all together for the first time in his mid-30s.

As for the Cubs, this could wind up being a big win. Francona, a Cooperstown-bound manager, paired with this roster could spell trouble for Chicago, especially if it fails to raise the floor of a team that's won 83 games in each of the last two seasons. But locking up a considerable chunk of the team's payroll in one player could put one arm behind the front office's back and really hinder any sort of roster flexibility the rest of the offseason.

It's worth taking note of. But it can't overshadow the to-do list the Cubs and Jed Hoyer have to work through themselves. You can't count on teams in the division potentially taking steps backward or their moves going sideways when charting your course. This falls squarely in that bucket and Chicago needs to go about business with one goal: dominating the National League Central in 2025.