3 reasons for optimism for the rest of the Chicago Cubs offseason heading into 2026

Christmas has come and gone, but Chicago Cubs fans found precious little under their trees this season. After last year brought an exciting Kyle Tucker trade as the big move just in time for the holidays, 2025 seems likely to end with nothing but a few good, but unspectacular, reliever signings and some solid bench pieces. Beyond that, there has merely been waiting and plenty of consternation about the team's spending (or lack thereof) and Jed Hoyer's willingness to be aggressive.

For a team coming off a 92-win season that came just short of a deep playoff run and should be building on that success, it's understandably frustrating to watch. The Cubs have continuously eschewed chances to push their chips in when it seemed like the wise thing to do, whether after the blockbuster move for one year of Tucker or after hiring Craig Counsell to take the roster to new heights. Even when the organization has pinpointed players they've liked, like Alex Bregman, a combination of front office caution and relatively frugal ownership has kept them from making things happen. This just isn't the team that Theo Epstein once ran, one that's unwilling to breach the luxury tax threshold and is perfectly fine letting the market pass them by to get deals on their terms.

That's not to say this offseason will be a failure, though. As easy as it is to point out and rightfully criticize the Cubs for not spending like the big-market team they are given their pattern of activity in recent years, we haven't quite reached the point where blame is justified for 2026. Yes, they haven't landed a frontline starter or the offensive upgrade they need, and completely whiffed on the chance to add a back-end reliever. But, for now, let's look at three reasons for optimism for what the rest of the offseason holds before the calendar flips over.

3 reasons for Cubs fans to have faith as the calendar turns to 2026

The starting pitching market hasn't moved much

For one, nothing has really changed much on the starting pitching front. While Dylan Cease and Michael King are both off the board on deals the Cubs wouldn't have done for one reason or another, the rest of the best rotation arms remain in play. Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez are still lingering, as is Tatsuya Imai, whom Chicago has been linked to as a top suitor. There's also Zac Gallen, who would be risky coming off a 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP season, but still promises a ton of upside.

Similarly, trade possibilities aplenty are still open. Granted, the Shane Baz trade with the Orioles and Rays indicated that prices will be astronomical this year, but it's still an avenue worth exploring. Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Joe Ryan, Mackenzie Gore, and more remain possibilities if the Cubs are willing to part with a few of their top prospects. It may be preferable if it opens up more of their remaining budget to make a considerable move on offense.

There's a strong likelihood that Imai's decision, which will need to come by January 2 at 5 p.m. ET, is a potential finger in the free agent dam at the moment. After that, there may be more movement and more aggression from the Cubs, depending on where the Japanese right-hander goes.

The Cubs' top targets are in a holding pattern

Keeping on that point, Imai is also likely responsible for some of the Cubs' reluctance to spend their remaining budget elsewhere. Hoyer loves to be flexible and wait until the last possible minute to make a move, and that's undoubtedly especially true for someone like Imai, whose AAV is projected to be in the realm of $22-25 million. Their current luxury tax payroll sits at a little over $200 million, $43 million beneath the tax threshold. Assuming they'll almost certainly aim to stay under that again with some room to spare for in-season moves, that means Imai's contract would eat up most of that remaining budget.

They're likely weighing the benefits of signing Imai with those of bringing in Bregman after missing out last year. He could have an even higher AAV and may wait even longer to sign with Scott Boras as his agent. Between those two, that's a lot for the Cubs to let play out well into the new year, at least in Bregman's case. Even if they don't end up with either, the signings of Imai and other notable Japanese target Kazuma Okamoto should spur more activity and push the Cubs into other markets.

So, there's a reason for the Cubs' relative inactivity and options once their top targets start to shake out. Those reasons also tie in with one overarching theme of the offseason.

Most teams aren't being aggressive at the top of the market

Aside from the closer market, most teams have been fine hanging back instead of rushing to make a deal with Imai, Bregman, or any of the other free agents. The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the few exceptions, rushing to land Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, but there's been an overall reluctance to wade into the deeper waters of spending otherwise. Whispers about Tucker, the consensus top free agent of the offseason, have been relatively few and quiet, indicating that his market may not be materializing as thought. The same goes for Bo Bichette, who's still quite young and has the offensive resume to earn a big payday, as well as the big-name starters beyond Imai.

Bregman's buzz has been a bit louder, with the Cubs accompanied by reports of interest from the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have shown reluctance to go to the lengths necessary to bring back the third baseman. It's also worth questioning whether the other two teams mentioned are actually seriously intrigued or being thrown around for leverage. After all, the Mariners were specifically propositioned about a meeting with Bregman, presumably because the offers they want aren't out there.

The process for foreign players is often more secretive, but Imai hasn't drawn a ton of public interest either. The usually deep-pocketed Yankees have been expressing a lot of reluctance about him and have frequently been seen as the Cubs' main competition. If this remains true, and there really are only a few select teams willing to go to the lengths necessary, that greatly increases the chances Hoyer and company will be able to land the target of their choice. As the offseason drags on, it may even pull the possibility of a Tucker reunion back into the realm of reality, even if it's still an immense long shot.

Again, the Cubs have to go out and execute, but the environment appears to be right for their conservative approach to actually succeed. What happens after Imai and Okamoto sign will be most telling, but there are plenty of ways to make the 2026 team much better from here.