The Chicago Cubs are on the doorstep of their first playoff berth in a full season since 2018. With their victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, their magic number to clinch a Wild Card spot has dropped to one, leaving only home-field advantage to fight for. It wasn't pretty, with the team enduring some ill health and multiple brutal slumps, but, barring an inconceivable disaster, they've made it into the dance.
How they'll fare in the postseason, however, remains up in the air. They're still dealing with injuries to Kyle Tucker and Daniel Palencia, and their offense still doesn't look nearly as potent as it did during the first half. Yet, they'll be riding into the playoffs with a starting rotation that's had the third-best ERA in the second half and still have plenty of talent that could roar to life with a lively home crowd behind them. Most importantly, though, they're starting to see some encouraging signs from a few notable players who have been struggling or hurt of late.
There's no better time than right before late September/October baseball to start getting hot. Let's look at three players starting to turn it around for the Cubs.
3 Cubs players getting hot at the perfect time
Michael Busch
Alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong, Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki, who all helped power a booming Cubs offense in the first half, Michael Busch similarly came crashing down after the All-Star break. He went from a 158 wRC+ to a 79 wRC+ in the second half heading into Tuesday's game, complete with a declining walk rate and disappearance of slugging. It's been a frustrating watch, especially considering underlying signs, like his barrel rate, hard hit rate, and exit velocity, remained elite.
More recently, though, the results have started to return in a big way. The culmination was his big three extra-base hit game on Tuesday, including a solo shot off of Paul Skenes to kick off the game. The turnaround in his performance is made apparent in his rolling xwOBA, with Busch experiencing one of the largest increases in expected results over the past 100 plate appearances, from .307 to .382. On a more basic results level, he now has a six-game hitting streak, with three homers, three doubles, and a lot more hard contact. He looks ready to go on a monster heater and carry the Cubs offense through the rest of the season.
Willi Castro
On the whole, the Cubs' acquisition of Willi Castro remains an abject disappointment. While he was never meant to be a game-changer offensively, his first-half 122 wRC+ gave hope that he could be a Ben Zobrist-like player bringing an above-average bat to just about any position. Instead, he delivered an almost unfathomable 8 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances in August.
Just about anything would be an improvement on that going forward, and so far, in September, he's found a way to contribute. He's not supplying any power whatsoever, but Castro is creating value through walks. Before facing the Pirates on Tuesday, he had a .241 batting average and .421 OBP on the month, bringing his overall offensive numbers up to a 118 wRC+ in that time. It's primarily powered by an elite 21.1 percent walk rate, allowing him to take better advantage of his above-average baserunning.
An ugly 0-for-5 game doesn't exactly help that, but he's been making better decisions at the plate that hopefully will continue translating to results, even if the slug isn't there. The Cubs don't necessarily have an extreme on-base guy, so if he could bring that discipline into the playoffs off the bench, it could set the table in a pinch against some very tough arms.
Jameson Taillon
2025 has been a bit of a roller coaster season for Jameson Taillon. Through April and May, he looked every bit like the steady middle of the rotation arm he's been with the Cubs, but a rough June with a 5.57 ERA created some slight concern. A calf injury didn't help matters, keeping him out all of July and stretching thin a rotation that has been rocked with lengthy losses all year. Now that he's healthy, though, he's gotten on a heater at the perfect time.
Taillon has also had to deal with a groin injury, but in the starts he's thrown both before and after that, he's earned a sparkling 1.69 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in the second half. His strikeout rate has been down over that time, but he's also dropped opposing teams' batting averages from .236 before the break to .205. Most encouraging is his FIP, which is a fair bit higher than his ERA at 3.33, but also nearly two points lower than his 5.22 mark during the first three months. The big difference is a lack of long balls, down to 0.42 HR/9 from 2.08.
If Taillon can keep up a similar roll into the Wild Card and limit costly fly balls, the Cubs' rotation would be well set for the postseason with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton surrounding him and a bullpen that will bring along swingmen Javier Assad, Colin Rea, and Mike Soroka. At his best, he's proven he can be a beacon of consistency, keeping even some of the league's top offenses at bay and going fairly deep while doing it.
